Bad time to enter the finance world?
Recently UBS, Lazard, and others announced sizable job cuts in anticipation of an economic downturn. I've heard that juniors (analysts, maybe associates) tend to be the safest in these scenarios (cheap, grunt labor).
- Is this a bad time to be joining the job market, or is it true that junior employees are typically safer?
- If things get worse, how likely is it that banks will terminate return offers?
Mod note: See related discussions here: Lazard Layoffs, and here: Soft Fired as Part of Firm Cuts.
UBS has been a sinking ship for years, and Lazard has struggled with the loss of key senior bankers such as George Bilicic. Stop with the incessant recession mongering.
LOL this is making me laugh So many banks are cutting and I guess for each of them is due to “bank specific issues”?
It might just be just be that some banks didn't make the "right" strategic moves as over the last decade.
There are lots of Financial Times articles on how the European Banks have been behind the American Banks. Some even show revenue graphs of various banks across different functions they serve. The data shows that the European omes have just been really bad at targetting high growth pockets while more conventional pockets are declining as a whole or just stagnating. So they have been "sinking ships". Same might apply for boutiques that don't tend to be so "innovative"
Do you see JPM and GS cutting headcounts ? (Except for titles that are automatable)
I would consider the recent cuts as more of leveling off after a couple of really strong investment banking years. 2016-2018 were some really exceptional years for deal activity and banks hired a ton of people, increased class sizes, etc. to keep up.
I think now we are in a position where deal volume has certainly declined in 2019 but is still at a healthy level. Banks are making cuts where they need to trim the fat and reflect this new reality.
There are also a lot of firm-specific problems - especially with European banks. Two things I'll point out which should be obvious. 1) The U.S. market is by far the best market in the world to do M&A and thus U.S. based banks are doing significantly better than European/Asian based ones. 2) It is tough to do deals in Europe for a multitude of reasons including higher regulations, more relaxed attitudes towards M&A, difficult to cut employees post-integration, etc. This combined with a Euro zone that is barely growing over 1% is going to/is most certainly signaling trouble for banks who do a lot of deals there.
I've never worked at a Euro bank but for whatever reason (maybe it is culture, maybe it is client preference for U.S. firms) they have not been as successful in the U.S. market. Hence you'll see UBS, DB, (and probably CS and Barclays too soon), etc. continue to make cuts that are broader than U.S. counterparts.
Between 2020-24, the global demographic wave will finally "crest" as the Boomer generation begins to retire en masse and so begins draining the system of capital into which they spent the better part of the last 40 years contributing.
Right now, the population of mature workers as a proportion of global population is at its peak. As this cohort inexorably edges toward retirement, they are shifting their portfolios into less risky assets. Less venture capital / PE, more bonds....
Finance has had its run for 40 years, but every king has his reign and then he dies. It will not be fun for Wall Street's next generation.
It's a bad time to be born, generally speaking
If you're thinking of it as a career, it won't matter that much 20 yrs down the road. Like a lot of things, if you have a long term view short term fluctuations don't matter as much.
From a quality source: "Recent cuts in Houston across Jefferies, Credit Suisse and Moelis at various levels (Directors, VPs and Associates)...Mainly upstream / A&D folks getting cut."
I've been wondering about exactly this for the last month. Between bailing out the repo market and restarting QE aka "balance sheet expansion" they're essentially propping up the economy despite creating structural problems. Given the US is at 100% debt/GDP and Japan is at 200%, the perception among policy makers is that we have $22T +/- of balance sheet cushion against future recessions. Knowing politicians, there's no way they'll let a recession ever happen again if this works. This coupled with lowering rates, which as trump has figured out you can force if you hound the FED enough, seems to be the shape of things to come.
There's no justification at all for current market prices and we're overdue for a recession but the entire shape of the financial system is changing.
It's really weird too, that the dollar is so strong while it's essentially being debauched.
I am probably a little late to this discussion, but it's been a bad time for the past 15 years, at least compared to the 30 years before that. I was out with a broker for dinner last night and one of the senior guys was reminiscing about the old days - in the late 90s, early 2000s any idiot with a bloomberg was making half a mil. Research analysts used to get paid for banking. You could trade best effort and skim off the vwap.
Now shit is fucking hard. You have to do real work and do it well to get ahead. But the industry isn't dying. I started work in 2008 amidst waves of layoffs, and what it gave me was opportunity. If you are smart and hard working, there will always be a job for you in this industry. If you suck, then it doesn't matter if "times are hard" or not because this field isn't for you.