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From bankers I work with I wouldn't be surprised if there are more layoffs across banking. People are more optimistic about the future but not really seeing a strong recovery in deal flow yet. Since these IB are driven by fee revenue, there needs to be deals to bring in revenue. Banks don't want to lay off a ton of people just to have to rehire them in a year or so, but they can't hold onto everyone indefinitely while fees are drying up. I'd expect another round of layoffs by the end of this year unless we see a large uptick in deal flow across the industry. 

 

who do you think is going to get cut? do you think analysts will be cut? 

 

No sense on what level would take the hit. They don't contribute to generating revenues directly, but they are the ones that do the grunt work on deals. Banks need grunt work since that's the fodder that feeds the machine, but if a VP or MD type are the ones that are bringing in the deals, they wouldn't be the ones to be laid off

 

In previous rounds there's been cuts across all levels - analysts are cheap so generally more shielded, but bottom performers and expensive non-performing seniors have already been cut in previous rounds so trims happen wherever they see they don't need people... banks still have too many juniors for how little work there is

 
tock123

Wouldn’t make sense to lay ppl off given there is real work taking place on current mandates in the pipeline and new ones that were just signed.

Spotted the 2023 grad. Mandate closing rate is nowhere as high as you think. 

 

Mandates in the pipeline or signed mandate =/= deals closing and fees realized.

It's a hell of a lot harder for companies to justify deal economics at current interest rates, but they will happily retain a bank for free to have someone searching for deals just in case. Even when interest rates were at 0 and market was on fire, the signed mandate -> closed deal rate was incredibly low... 

 

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