BB offer likely at Analyst. Base cut, forfeited bonus, and I’d be giving up scope. Talk me into or out of it.

Where I sit now. Small west coast bank, strong title, healthcare deals in the $20M to $75M range. I lead essentially every part of the process. The firm is growing well and the economics are strong, roughly $1M in fees per employee counting every seat including back office.

The problems: we are extremely focused on one narrow niche, I have zero visibility into what comp looks like two or three years out, and exit opportunities from here are a total unknown. That’s the part that has me looking.

Background: about 5 years in, 4 at a T1 consulting firm and 1 in banking. No MBA. Recruiter at a bulge bracket is signaling an offer, but at analyst. For what it’s worth, I think the process went about as well as it could have.

If I go in as an analyst, the comp picture is ugly. Base decrease, plus I forfeit nine months of accrued bonus by leaving now. Best case is that total comp ticks up slightly 12 months from now, and only if I hit a full 100% of base as bonus.

Where I need help -

Is Associate a realistic ask, or does the consulting time get discounted to zero? Landing the level is what makes the math on comp worth.

Should I be asking for a signing bonus to cover the forfeited nine months and a floor on year-one bonus?

Is the brand worth a level reset, a pay cut, and going from running deals to an analyst seat?

Appreciate all the help!