Obviously certain groups within banks are really hurting right now. It even sounded like, in August, M&A activity slowed down a bit as everyone waited to see the extent of damage the credit crunch would cause. What do you think will happen to M&A over the next two years, and ultimately over the next four years (these time periods will affect most of the posters on this forum)?
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There is a good article in the Weekend WSJ regarding bankers perspective on deal flow for next year. Deal flow is expected to return to 2005 levels (which was still a boom year) but relative to the past 2 years it represents a significant drop in M&A activity and many banks will see substantial losses unless they are able to make up for it in revenue from other divisions, which as we all know is unlikely at this point with everyone's sub-prime exposure.
I think compensation this year will be a good bell-weather of things to come...
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