http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&s…
Are these Swiss banks screwed? Can CS leverage its (relatively) stronger position to gain on UBS in the long-run?
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Not sure about the IBD side, but on the PWM side they are grabbing high net worth clients left and right from UBS and others that no longer exist. CS's IBD has done relatively less bad than UBS's, but that's not saying a ton. I'd say right now, in terms of equity value, CS's IBD unit is about zero while UBS's is negative. For example, if both IBD units were spun out for sale this month, I'd pretty much guarantee CS's IBD unit would sell for more.
Doesn't mean a ton overall though for analysts, other than the fact that positions will continue to be sparse at both banks. Don't think either of the Swiss giants are going to dump and run on IBD, though UBS seems more inclined to do so than CS.
UBS have a #1 franchaise in equities, and dealwise their IBD is better then CS's. UBS got fucked pretty badly by some bad FI trades, but all in all their IB franchise is still strong. Can't really tell which of the CS or UBS will come out on top because 2008 was a writedown year for pretty much every bank.
Just my 2c.
Sorry, was referring to the entire IB units- S&T, alternative investments and advisory. UBS might have the better advisory business, but their S&T business has screwed them badly and the Swiss government hammering bonuses down will cause all those good MDs in M&A/equities/debt advisory to flee.
As lorican stated, they're all getting killed right now. DB posted a similar loss to the two Swiss banks. Pretty much everyone is going to be posting $5BN+ losses. The thing I worry the most about with UBS is the Swiss government cracking down on the bonuses, which will cause a lot of top talent to leave. IF they can somehow hold onto those MDs, they will likely still be in a better position than CS as far as advisory, like they were before things went belly-up.
Didn't UBS mention that they might bump the base up to USD 800,000 for MDs so as to prevent a massive walk out. I think 800,000 is a pretty good retention figure.
$800,000!?, I was expecting $500,000 max - unless it is already that much or more now.
don't know if this means anything but in the annual report webcast ubs said in 2009 all bonuses will be back to "competitive" levels
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