CS...now is it '08 all over again ?
In early 2020, as someone who felt the pain of lay-off on his first job, straight out of school, I started to think deeply about the word "job" and the phrase "job security".
Since then, after figuring some things out, I've started some side biz that's starting to generate income already. Nothing grand, but good pocket cash with a potential to scale. Still looking to jump ship since my current bank (in Hong Kong) is pretty shitty.
Having said that, I'm a bit shocked to see CS fall. Was on a biotech IPO deal with CS, and a couple of weeks ago the company said CS is off the bookrunner's list. Then it's SNB and UBS announcements.
Everything just happened so quickly.
This time it's not the domino of Lehman, Bear, Merryll, etc., but with CS and SVB and First Republic, it's hard not to think of the GFC. The job market is, to say the least, tough.
What do you think ?
Yeah I thought about the GFC too at one point while this was happening. Hopefully it won’t get any worse than this. We’ll see…
Obviously not. CS has had underlying problems for a long time, there isnt a contagion risk to other banks. GFC as you'll know was primarily down to shit mortgages. Today with CS it's just down to their spectacular mismanagement.
Not sure about this...go take a look, more than just SVB have unrealized losses on their balance sheets due to investments in treasuries. But most of their depositor base is not startups / has VCs advising them to pull out.
Also banking as a whole depends on each other, a matt levine article last weeks talks about it well. If one bank gets a run, people at other banks get antsy...
Everyone wants another bank-led recession so bad lol
I think the real risk is in the regional banks. The flight of deposits from regional banks to the GSIBs will have significant consequences for commercial real estate lending throughout the US. A significant chunk of the loan growth in the US over the past couple of years was from regional banks.
The fact that people are comparing this to the GFC shows a real lack of understanding.
Wondering how this ubs/cs m&a gonna impact incoming ubs hk sa
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