Difference in Exit Opportunities - By Bank

Given how much recruiting has accelerated, deal experience matters less and less, with most analysts not having closed (or even worked significantly on) any deal; this is specifically the case for on cycle. As you can imagine, this means more emphasis on bank / group / school as a 'measure' of success. Correct or incorrect, that's just the way it is trending.

In terms of exits from a GS / MS vs. a "lower ranked" BB, I don't think you see much of a difference at the top end. By this I mean, the strongest analysts at both banks have an opportunity to exit to MF / UMM PE, and there are plenty of examples of this happening, even recently, from UBS, DB, Citi, etc. There are certain highly selective funds that may only recruit from a few select EB or BB groups, but those are a small minority. Where you see a larger difference is across the rest of the board. So while it it is pretty rare to see an analyst from say GS FIG, "strike out" in terms of recruiting and not land a pretty strong PE/HF option (if they are recruiting for those), if you move to a Citi FIG, you might have a bottom 50% of analysts in the group who don't really land anything in the main cycle of recruiting and end up moving down in fund size / diversifying in terms of strategy.

More anecdotal, but I remember speaking to an analyst 2 years above me who was in a HF role and had been in an ok coverage group at Citi previously. He made it pretty clear that the options available to those in his group were much more limited, and most of them didn't end up landing PE roles (this was one of the reasons he ended up in the HF world). The top bank / group gives you the luxury of being able to be highly selective in your recruiting. You can target x size of funds with x strategy in x location and have a pretty good shot of making it happen. When you move down the rankings, those analysts don't have that same luxury.

One final thing I will add, which I just learned / realized recently, is that the 'higher ranked' bank, GS/MS specifically, stays with you well after your 2 years. Even 5+ years out of banking, when someone (recruiter, PE fund particularly in the MM, etc) sees that you did your IB stint at one of these firms, they make an immediate assumption on your candidacy. I don't think it makes much sense at all, since by then you have much more relevant and recent experience, but this bias definitely exists.