Future of Banking?
Saw a recent thread asking where people would prefer to start their career: SF or NY. Gotta say, I was surprised by the amount of support given to SF. Was expecting NYC to win by a landslide, given this is, well, WSO. But it got me thinking. What does the future of IB look like? Will tech eat away at other industry groups and blend the line we see between, say Tech, Media, Entertainment, Retail, even Industrials? Let's face it. Consumer & Retail is a dying industry. Will the job of an investment banker in a shop like Financo (dedicated to C&R) maintain its liveliness for long? I understand product groups will always be there. But as for industry ones, if we're not part of TMT, is it possible we can be at a disadvantage in the upcoming years? Would appreciate all your thoughts and reasonings!
Edit: A few questions I feel that sum up my entire post: What does the future (next 10 years) look like for industry groups outside of TMT? Will they be looking at similar deal flow to what's currently experienced? Will they even be separate groups, or will they be consolidated into tech? If it's the latter, could we see SF replacing NYC as the financial capital of the US? If one's not part of TMT, will they be screwed (again, about like 10 years in the future) come time of exiting to PE?
Appreciate all insight!
Uhhh you forgot this small industry group called healthcare which happens to comprise 18% of US GDP.
The lines between tech and other groups will be increasingly blurred as businesses become increasingly digital across sectors.
For instance, retail will pivot from a bricks and mortar platform to a digital one. Doesn't mean C&R groups will die out; it just means that C&R bankers will have to understand the dynamics of ecommerce and digital platforms.
So in a nutshell, bankers across groups will have to understand digital businesses a lot better. FIG is a good example. Fintech has not necessarily migrated to TMT coverage - given that the economics of these businesses are fundamentally FIG-like (obviously), the tech bit is rather a way of approaching the business (i.e. digitising risk functions, branches etc).
Re SF vs NYC, SF has a terrible time zone situation. Capital flows globally these days. London will still be the financial centre ex-US due to its legal system and time zone positioning. Therefore NYC is the natural hub for US capital, as working with SF from London would be a nightmare. I did back in the day as TMT banker and have to say it wasn't pleasant.