Is Investment Banking a Sunset Industry?
What are folks thoughts on this?
In the 1950s the automotive industry was THE place to be. Manufacturing was booming, people were getting paid well, and working at an automotive company was seen as a high status symbol. Then, due to oil prices and increased international competition, the industry began to contract, wages declined on a real basis, and the industry consolidated significantly. Today, companies actively try to steer away from automotive and the public companies trade at absurdly low multiples.
Of course the catalysts are different, but do you see finance following the same path? The industry was the place to be in the 80s/90s - banks were seeing absurd growth and didn’t have enough people to fill the spots, so upward mobility and comp were sensational. Then the global financial crisis hit, government support was needed, and regulation in the industry ran rampant. There was also an influx of candidates during this period, so supply boomed while demand declined.
Is finance going the way of automotive, or do people think finance will remain a relatively prestigious field in the future? Wages have declined and IB is becoming increasingly commoditized, particularly at BBs.
As an aside, Big Tech seems to be following this exact pattern - booming in the 2010s… influx of candidates… AI killing coding jobs… declining industry in terms of profit and wages.
bump
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