Its Time to Play the Summer Conversion Rate Game!
So... we are approaching the end of summer intnerships. What do people think about conversion to full time for summer analysts/summer associates. Please, feel free to be bank specific.
I'll start the rumor mill with what I've heard (all but one of these is second hand, FYI)
GS: not telling people until October BofA:if you match your group and they match you, you're in. otherwise, tough luck Citi: 50% MS: maybe not telling people until October LEH: screwed UBS: group specific, if you don't suck, you're in JPM: 50% MER: group specific, if you don't suck, you're in
CS...
I would think that conversion would actually tend to be higher than usual this year overall (unless your firm is just plain screwed). My logic is that going back to campus costs money (receptions, travel, etc) so unless you really suck, it makes sense for the bank to keep you - you've already been pseudo-trained, they already know they like you, and you're desperate for the job given the environment. Win-win.
Does anyone disagree?
I know my bank will definitely be cutting back on campus hiring this year, and taking more interns on FT.
I certainly hope you're right captk..
Conversations with people at my bank has led me to draw a similar conclusion, though naturally I am somewhat skeptical/worried. My firm is among the better-off in the current crisis.
I think most of the bulge brackets will be the same or lower than usual. Why?
Well, I do think captk is correct in that many banks will try to fill their ranks with summer interns, partially due to cost/effort and partially due to demand (e.g. reduced dealflow = reduced headcount demand = less of a need for full-fledged recruiting).
However, in "normal years" (before all the credit problems and layoffs started) the conversion rate is already decently high (over 50%) at most firms assuming the summer analysts are good.
Based on what I've seen in the market and what I've been hearing, dealflow is now so slow that many banks really have no need for a flood of new FT analysts - so they can afford to be more selective with who receives offers.
Conversion rates may not be substantially lower than usual, but things are really, really slow overall... which leads me to believe a similar or higher conversion rate is unlikely.
One exception: smaller places have not been hit as hard so their conversion rates may actually be up, as captk suggests. And the smaller firms will certainly still be recruiting via the normal channels as well.
I think that most people in charge think that we'll be coming out of the current downturn/recession by the time current summers are graduating, and dealflow will actually be picking up at that time. So I'd expect hiring for next year to be robust. Banks do not want to be in a situation where the economy picks up and they don't have enough analysts. Having said all this, if the recession ends up lasting longer than a year, I'd guess that there will be many rescinded offers come next summer.
Info for at least 2 of your listed banks is incorrect.
To the OP,
I know firsthand that your information is dead wrong on at least one of the firms.
Anyway, mind sharing which firm information is actually firsthand?
FT recruiting will not be non-existant, but will focused on getting top notch recruits without offers, possibly due to the financial condition or weakened market share (cough.. LEH, MER, BSC..clears throat).
Intern conversion numbers will most likely be down slightly from the 90%+ in the past, but it's most likely a fit situation. If you get along well, you're in. But we've all seen interns who somehow snuck in, start the job, and just suck. Happens in the good years, happens in the bad ones too. This year, the bar is set higher.
Some banks have displaced incomming analysts into different groups this year (think GS and S&T analysts going into Ops) and some have announced next year. There are analysts that are cut that are looking to come back. So, there is additional supply coming from non-traditional sources.
I know a girl at a BB who will be starting FT in a couple of weeks (I think she's still in training) who was accepted for a IBD position but was relocated to PB Control.
What happens to these analysts? Of course they have a job in a difficult economic time period, but it's not what they set out for (and were, in fact, offered). How much will this hurt them in the long run?
.
Stop saying the list is wrong, just correct it!
why do you guys bother predicting? If the rate is high, then good, if not then too bad.
I'm sure my information isn't 100% accurate. That's why I made mention that only one of them is first hand.
Everything I posted is "rumor mill" from my conversations with my peers around the street.
PM me and I'll talk more about what I know first hand.
If you make a claim that my numbers are wrong then you should probably suggest a better number. We are just trying to zero in on a decent solution here. If you just want to claim my numbers are wrong (which all but one of them naturally should be wrong) then THANK YOU for the compliment because you're giving me credit for a much higher hit rate than I claimed which is that only one number is first hand.
This was meant to start the discussion... please... keep discussing.....
how about we DON'T pm you and you STOP talking out of your ass?
guys lets relax he's trying to get more visibility into how things are shaping up. Let's try to be constructive here.
Haha this is like that game on Price is Right where the contestant chooses 5 numbers in the price of the car. Barker asks, "does he have ONE right?" honk = yes "does he have TWO right?" etc. So by the end he knows only 3 out of the 5 are right --> he has no clue which ones.
Bottom line, it's no help to anyone if you just say "ummmm 2 out of those are definitely wrong." Just say which ones and just make up an excuse like "I heard it from an analyst there" if you don't want to give away that you work there.
(or just create a new account and PM the original poster to maximize privacy)
ouch that sucks partying after an IBD offer and then starting out in ops.
Yes, what does happen to them?
What would you do if it happened to you? Just quit and start seeking a MM firm?
I have heard rumors of similar things happening to that girl. I have two friends in training at a bank and they are attempting to move people from cap mkts to s&t to rebalance needs. However, this doesn't help for SA and the current situation. I can say that the group I interned with had an offer rate of 25%, however this was group specific and NOT firm wide (firm wide from what I've gathered was much higher).
LEH - 80% IBD got offers, capital markets got screwed Wachovia - 75% got offers MER - "summer analysts are not given offers until mid-August" - staffer
Capital Markets got screwed meaning what percentage? = or 50%?
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