Lateral Promotion Risks?
Hope everyone is having a nice Thanksgiving.
I have an opportunity to join a BB as a second year analyst (start date would be in Jan 2026) and am concerned about A2A chances. I was told that the BB would provide a performance rating in August 2026 (only 7 months following my start date) which will be used to determine whether I would receive an Associate promotion in June 2027 (although, the promotion decision would be communicated in November 2026).
Feel that 6-7 months is a very tight timeline to assess associate promotion as the first few months is always a learning curve for new joiners and, as such, am concerned that I would be at a material disadvantage performance wise especially relative to the homegrown analysts at the BB.
Thoughts on this? How risky is this lateral move? I would like to go A2A but not sure how feasible this will be given the tight timeline.
I will bite - though I think this is something that would've came up in the interview process if they had intentions to promote you A2A.
1.) Did your new BB group communicate with you when they would expect to promote you? When I lateralled to my current group, I was told explicitly that I would not be up for promotion the year I joined, and that I would be up for promo the following year (3 years total as as an analyst). Its my understanding most banks will want you to do at least two years of their "training" program before promoting you. Promotion cycles were different 2-3 years ago given deal volume during COVID and need for as many hands as possible, but unless the promotion has been communicated to you directly then I would assume they would want you to do a third year year.
2.) This is not a market where employees have negotiating power - employers have all the negotiating power right now. With increased efficiency and adoption in AI, they don't need to pay an ASO1 salary to someone who could be getting paid an A3 salary.
3.) In general, most banks are also switching back to 3 year analyst programs.
This is not to say you couldn't get promoted. I'm sure if you come in like an absolute rockstar they would be willing to promote you, however, its been my experience that as a lateral (unless coming in as an A3), that they will make you do a third year.
Thanks so much for sharing your insights on this.
Right, I’ll definitely be doing a third year since there’s only like 5 months left as a 2nd year analyst by the time I start (will be analyst 3 in June 2026). That said, what concerns me is the fact that the BB will give me a performance rating in August 2026 (so would only have a 7 month track record on the team) and then they hand out associate promotion decisions (whether promote or no promote) in November 2026, with the decision based on that performance rating given in August, so effectively my promotion chances are evaluated based on only 7 months of performance data.
In my view, I feel that that timeframe is too limited and leaves basically no room for training/learning the job.
The program ends in June 2027 (third year concludes then), so if I don’t get promotion offer in November 2026, I’ll have to spend the ~5months remaining in the program to secure an offer externally
Do you think this would be a risky move with relatively lower associate promotion chances?
Well what is your current situation? Are you at a MM shop in the mid-west looking to lateral to a BB in NYC? Are you at a MM in NYC? What is your reason for leaving your current group? Are you on Associate track at your current group? Are you pivoting coverage groups?
Just by answering those questions maybe you can figure out what the right decision is. I was in a similar spot pivoting coverage groups and had a super negative view on promotions and had all the same thoughts - "what if I'm not as good as the other analysts" "what if I don't get promoted" and it sounds cliche, but if you just work hard, and have a good attitude, most people will probably want to keep you around.
Also, I don't know what coverage you're going into but if your BB group places well into PE you can do that or try and jump as an Associate to another bank. Regardless, why not phrase the question different, instead of "what if I can't do a good job and don't get ASO", why not phrase it as "what if I do a good job and get ASO?"
Believe it or not most banks have a really hard time retaining talent and don't like hiring people to fire them a few months later, or even a year later. So if they gave you an offer I would take it and just put your best foot forward, if it works it does, and if it doesn't it doesn't. You would still have three years of great experience (including 1.5 years of BB experience).
What team is this for? Could you potentially have good options to leave after 2 years? Or do you want to be a career banker?
Would advise you to not be so shortsighted with this. Who cares if you need to do another full year before A2A promote? If it’s a big trade up in terms of bank and group it should not be an issue.
You are coming in at an off-cycle time in the group and thus need to adhere to their performance review timelines. You need to accept that you will likely end up mid bucket and likely need to do another year. They generally wouldn’t hire you as an experienced analyst id they have no intention of promoting you at some point.
I’d say take the offer, do as best as you can and accept it may take an extra year for the promote.
Absolutely agree with the above - if you like this bank/group and want to stay there, eating one extra year with lateraling is the norm and not something you should get worked up about. The long-term is much more important.
Most laterals going A2A do a third year even if they are doing a great job, I would just accept that as a fact... if it's earlier, great, but I would not make your plans around it or harass the team too much on promotions.
xxxxx
Curious as to what your reasoning behind moving from BB to EB was?
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