NYT Dealbook 2013 Bonus Predictions

Interesting article from Dealbook....http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/12/16/big-bonuses-but-a-shift-in-who-g…

The article makes a particularly definitive statement about the shift in compensation on Wall Street- "While compensation on Wall Street may be up over all, the total number may hide an uncomfortable reality about the transformation of the finance industry: the old-school advisers to Fortune 500 clients on strategic mergers and acquisitions — made famous by the likes of Felix Rohatyn and the late Bruce Wasserstein — are unlikely to be the big rainmakers anymore.......They have been eclipsed by hedge funds, asset managers and anyone who has anything to do with initial public offerings. With the stock market up and more money pouring in every day, bonuses will be showered generously on employees connected to that world."

What do you guys think about this? Personally, I think that statement is a bit misleading. Asset managers getting substantially larger bonuses is a direct result of the huge gains in the stock market over the past year or so (not a trend that will last forever, obviously). Those on the advisory side are making less because of the painfully slow economic recovery, coupled with the frequent macroeconomic shocks that make huge deals far less likely to happen. But the article makes it seem like there has been a permanent shift in Wall Street compensation.

Just my humble opinion. Thoughts on this?

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