Thoughts on a Recession Happening this Summer?
Any thoughts on the chances of a recession happening this summer? What would happen to summer analysts if a recession were to hit, in terms of full time offers?
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Check the 2/10 T-note spread which is a pretty good indicator of recessions. The spread is getting closer but there most likely won't be an inverted yield curve (a really bad sign) this year. Not sure how a recession will impact full time offers, but I assume there will be less FT offers just because there would be an economic slowdown.
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People like you fascinate me. In the face of a mountain of evidence, you will go on believing this because actual idiots on twitter or TV tell you to.
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There is a non-zero chance of recession this summer. It is effectively zero chance, however.
And you're calling people on Twitter/TV idiots?
Someone hit the nail on the hammer. Look at 2/10 yield curve. No recession unless inverted.
It only inverts if the federal reserve is idiotic and let’s it invert. If they are smart and the curve looks like it will invert then they need to quit hiking rates and cut rates.
It’s not a non-zero probability. If I ran the federal reserve I could put the economy in a depression in 3 months (just hike to 6% next meeting), but I could also prevent a recession by manufacturing a steep curve if needed.
Im graduating college 2024. I am hoping for a recession in the next year so by the time i graduate we will be on the up swing
Why the fuck are you on this forum?
Because i get funny responses from guys like you
He loves collecting MS
Hey I found WSO when I was a junior in HS as well. Probably one of the better college advice forums out there.
Does anyone have any thoughts on what industry groups are typically least or most effected by recessions and poor market conditions? Are there any safer bets?
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Restructuring is a good hedge. FIG sees an increase in deal flow, but I'd still be wary. Groups that suffer the most would be product groups like ECM/DCM/Lev Fin. I'd say everyone suffers except restructuring (they suffer in hours).
My 2 cents is that you should think more of defensive silos. Every group has silos that are more defensive and some that are more cyclical (HC biotech vs hospitals).
In absolutely no way you can Name ECM/DCM/LevFin as one bunch in this context. LevFin is likely to drop very sharply due to crises but also has very significant upside potential during better phases of the economy. ECM activity will be very low during crises as well. DCM probably is the Group that is least affected during periods of crises. Large corporations continuously have to refinance their maturing debt, so there will always be some funding need. For instance, in the weeks after Sep 2008 EUR DCM activity was non-existent, but gradually picked up one or two months into the crisis, while LevFin/ECM were shook badly. So DCM is one of the safer bets when it comes to crisis resistance, IMO.
Likely Distressed M&A and Special Situations groups typically perform well in downturns as well
Restructuring/trading good.
Everything else mostly bad. Healthcare is fine.
Also recessions are surprisingly good for start-ups. If you are the ramen type. Drives out a lot of competition. Seems like a lot of solid tech companies were built in the 2007-2010 area.
always diversify..think about your plan and where you want to go, recession could mean a downturn in the IB job market, but it also depends on what you are looking for, what sectors do you think will have the least impact?? This is a great question to ask yourself and others
With the way all of these tech and data issues are going (autonomous vehicle crashes, data breaches, etc.), some sort of huge tech issue regarding data or the like could contribute to a downturn in the market.
I did not live it, but I have heard of entire summer classes getting canceled. It's possible, it will suck. I did graduate into the recession though and breaking in was extremely difficult, but that's why I spent four years wasting away in public accounting. Just try to remember, even if it does happen to you, it is not the end of your professional career or your life. You'll just have to re-callibrate and figure out a different way forward.
I had this happen at an intelligence agency, it sucked balls
Keep in mind that 08/09 was not just a recession but a credit crisis. Banks are much better capitalized now. We may see a recession, but I don't think we will see a crisis this time around.
Agreed. 2008 and the Great Depression are definitely historical outliers... hopefully. However we have been in a low rate environment for so long, who knows what kind of risks are secretly being taken by fund managers who need to juice performance -- hopefully that doesn't impact the IB world very much.
Yea - they cancel grad classes. If you are lucky enough and had an offer from Lehman, Nomura selectively extended offers a year later
At the moment, I have (the equivalent dollar value) of roughly $500k short the S&P500.
Uh
https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/iama-guy-who-just-lost-half-a-mi…
didn't you just lose most of your personal liquidity 5 months ago?
nothing says I can't increase leverage using derivatives.
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