UBS won with CS
Do you think the UBS-CS forced acquisition was actually a huge win for UBS?
UBS just said that it needs no more the cover of the Swiss Gov't ("SG"): $10 bln. You really need to be confident that the business and incorporation of CS will go extremely well to refuse authorities' intervention or backup (when they pushed it into you). The fact that you're leaving out the public agents from the reorganization that you're performing, for me, it's an indicator that the company is planning to implement (i) some business-wise decisions that may make the SG realize their mistake i.e., supporting a banking monopoly, and (ii) some more aggressive business strategies that may make the SG realize that this merger, instead of a burden, was a huge win.
Moreover, was CS really as fucked as it seem? I don't think so, the market thought they were in danger, but now with the banking 2.0 crisis behind, the bank is doing well and moreover, its debt, was wiped out by the SG.
So what a nice win for the UBS executives, I think they're popping champagne all over their boardroom.
Pretty much. They are using the merger value added $ to build out IB in americas, eg by hiring all the best barclays bankers and thus solidifying #1 european bank in the US.
Expecting UBS to be back in top 5 in LT in 2024
The value in CS for UBS is not in IBD. CS's top relationships in IBD have already left and the balance sheet was way riskier than UBS has historically tolerated. The value in CS will come from the AM/WM arms if they can successfully stem the outflow of assets and clean up.