What does an impending recession mean for students wishing to pursue a career in finance?
It seems like everyone and their mother is predicting an upcoming global recession within the next couple of years. There was a discussion about this in a thread earlier. https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/60-chance-of-a-global-recession-….
The purposed causes of the recession are diverse, as well as the predictions of its scale and impact on the global economy. But what does this all mean for students seeking careers within the finance industry in the near future? As a member of the Class of 2021, should I be concerned? If a recession does occur, what would the hiring market look like? Do you guys think it may be a bad time to enter finance in the next couple of years?
You're career will span 4 decades (at least). There will be booms and busts. Consolidations and divestitures. Layoffs and hiring sprees. Do what you want, network and be resilient.
Or work for the government and be a leach on society.
Thanks for the response! I completely understand that there will be highs and lows to everyone's career, but my question is do you think that the hiring market will be stable 3-4 years from now? I'm terrified of the notion of spending thousands on a college education on a finance degree whose job market is dry. I'm currently trying to decide between medicine and finance and although I understand that everything will work out in the end, I rather have that end come sooner than later!
Finance and medicine are highly different career paths. Which do you prefer? There is no one here with a crystal ball who can predict the timing of the next recession. Even so, top candidates still get jobs in bad economies. Make yourself a top candidate if you want to pursue finance.
I was a fringe candidate due to transferring as a senior (+ 5th year) and late realization that I wanted to pursue finance. In a good economy, I probably would have gotten my desired job in IB. Instead, I graduated at the height (bottom?) of the tech bubble bursting and started in middle office at a BB and moved up from there, later transitioning over to IB. It all still worked out.
If you become a doctor, you will be more or less guaranteed a job. We have a massive physician shortage in the US. I am now in healthcare and work directly with doctors. Job satisfaction for physicians is extremely low these days. Make sure you are passionate enough about medicine if you want to take that route, particularly if you'll be left with hundreds of thousands in debt.
The "experts" missed 80, 01, 08, Brexit, Trump, and hopefully Frexit... don't take their lip service seriously.
judging by your post, you didn't read alchemy of finance or don't know what an economist is.
as to the question, if you consider El Erian an economist, there's one, could also throw bernanke & geithner in there, as they got lucrative private sector jobs post-public service.
but if you're wondering if someone who is an economist actually got wealthy off of their predictions, meh. economists can be great researchers, great writers, great teachers, but investing is very different than what takes place in the normal distribution world academics like to believe exist.
Arti
Since I have a headache and the condescending tone of your comment annoyed me, I'm going to start by making this asshole observation: despite writing two paragraphs (albeit short, poorly constructed ones) and taking the time to google a picture of a page from the book, you didn't actually make a single argument. You did manage to ask a bunch of rhetorical questions, state a fact, and then described a response I could give to your questions that would force you question your knowledge of what's discussed in economics classes at expensive universities (btw, didn't attend one so I can't help you there).
Now that I've got that out of my system:
It seems like you're justifying your classification of Soros as an economist since i) he "studies macroeconomic principles and proposes his own concept of behavioral economics" and ii) "that there are things scattered throughout this book that [should] remind me of concepts covered in my macroeconomic courses".
To state the obvious, having studied the principles of macroeconomics is clearly NOT enough to to qualify you as an economist (which is a professional title) on it's own. As they say at those 40k/yr universities (or so I assume, since I got my econ degree at a state school), it's a necessary but NOT sufficient condition.
On to the next one....
We agree that much of Soro's work discusses economic concepts (mostly so he can remind everyone that they're not representative of how the real world works) and that the main premise of the 'Alchemy of Finance' is to explain his personal philosophical approach to investing.
Of course, that's fine, cause both those things are totally consistent with being an investor (which is what Soros is). I can walk you through the logic in excruciating detail, but basically comes down to the fact that investors are people who apply the principles of finance (which is, of course, what we call it when economics is specifically and exclusively applied in the context of the global credit/monetary system) to make a profit. It's a simple as the difference between an engineer and physicist - one refers to the person applying the theories and the other refers to the person who discovers/explains/clarifies/teaches those principles. If you think that's bullshit or a distinction without a difference, try going to your local biology PH.D the next time you get shot.
Even if you ignore all that though, you should have still realized you're wrong since Soros devoted the first chapter of that book to explaining why he thought economics is a flawed science and explain how his approach is different and better.
Second, obvious indicator: He's not referred to as an economist, in general. Just checked wiki and GeorgeSoros.com and neither referred to him as an economist. The more you know.
Oh, and one last thing - I assume you picked that page b/c you thought 'Reagan's Imperial Circle' was a good example of an economic principle (e.g. as evidence of me being wrong)? If so, you're wrong since i) that's just what Soros called the specific set of economic conditions facing America at that time (different than a principle) and ii) there is not an econ textbook written in the last decade containing that 'principle'.
OP, have some cojones.
Sure, there's a risk that you graduate in May '08 and are promptly laid off without a year of experience under your belt. As others have said, there's a good chance you'll bounce back. I think what you're really worried about is the economy going bust and you falling off the deep end entirely - don't worry about that. That's no way to live your life, and it's not likely to happen anyway. The only finance people I know who couldn't climb back into the tower after 08 are those who fell from the top - and that has less to do with the difficulty of getting hired in a recession and more to do with the difficulty of getting back into the fold when you're a former MD, you're expensive, and you have severance contract clauses weighing you down.
Look, you seem like an enterprising young man, so I'll add something I haven't seen others add above: If you're truly exceptional, then the shittiest time is the time to get in the game.
Paulson's bank account was created not in spite of, but because of his willingness to engage in the largest economic crash in a century.
Medal of honor recipients are elevated to glory because they charge into losing odds and prevail, not winning ones.
LBO specialists make millions by purchasing companies that are on the verge of bankruptcy and turning them around.
Traders make money by buying low and selling high.
Stable situations are not the stage on which greatness is acted out.
Remember: Risk versus reward
Believe in yourself and embrace whatever odds may come. In the words of Phillips Brooks:
Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men. Do not pray for tasks equal to your powers. Pray for powers equal to your tasks. Then the doing of your work shall be no miracle, but you shall be the miracle.