I'm curious what the IB bonuses for first years were for the 1st "rebound year" following the dot-com bust. Trying to evaluate whether it makes sense to go into banking right now.
Thanks.
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Go to Stanford. How could it hurt?
Well, many (including me) believe that the recession will be longer/more intense than any dips in the past 50 years. I think the gov't deficit, U.S. trade deficit, consumer deficit, and artificially propped dollar will make this an L-shaped slow-down that could last for decades, similar to that experienced by Japan in the 90s. Many people now in bschool are regretting their decisions, because they can't find even an internship (or are settling for internships that they don't want). Career switchers have been hit exceptionally hard - don't even want to think about those w/o experience. I'm trying to map out each different scenario (short downturn, long downturn, bschool, work, etc.) and make a decision based on expected payoff - guess I'm a game-theory nerd :(, but I've always thought in terms of long-term optimization.
This might be relevant to you as well, GordonGecko, as I know you are also looking into bshcool:
http://forums.businessweek.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=messages&webt…
Well, you don't need to do banking right now for the money, but for the experience (right?). Why not take the BoA offer and run with it and build your resume for HBS? If you get fired, dust yourself off, join the peace core for a year and apply to HBS anyway. Then you are talking 5 years down the line before you graduate your MBA.
http://media.ft.com/cms/88acee50-f471-11dd-8e76-0000779fd2ac.gif
Note that chart is average bonuses, not specific to analysts, so use a percentage comparison to other years you have data points from to get your 03/04 analyst numbers. I think this exercise is pretty pointless though, as you're not factoring in inflation, the financial climate, enhanced variance between firms, and most of all the regulatory climate prevailing today.
The worst thing you can do is potentially try and time the economy. If you can get into the banking now, it is a great time to learn the trade and potentially could ride the next wave up...
To GG: yes, it's more about experience, but pay is important in the sense that I should also consider whether I should still go into banking as opposed to what many of my friends are doing and jumping for the nearest exit, whether that be consulting, IM, etc.
Regardless, I appreciate all of the advice. From the chart posted, it seemed as if bonus levels did not get decimated, rather, simply fell their pre-boom (realistic) levels. I have decided that I likely will to return to banking, at least for the immediate term.
You'll be a junior guy in any of those careers, and all of them have steeply accelerating pay levels. It is far more important what you'll be earning and whether you'll be like your job when the difference can be millions than when you are talking about a 50k difference at the most.
Considering they fell to '04 levels in one of the worst years in history, I'd say there's a good chance they'll rebound to '05 levels fairly soon. I would be surprised if '09 was as bad as '08, and as soon as things pick up bonuses will be back up to pretty ridiculous levels.
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