Why are ppl leaving NYC?

Heard an interesting statistic the other day that U-Haul reservations have spiked 3x the usual rate this summer for people leaving NYC. Is anyone here planning on leaving? I suspect this mostly relates to non-finance related people that have jobs that can be done remotely

Rental market in NY also seems attractive on StreetEasy

 

A substantial majority of manhattan leases end june-september. If your employer isn't coming back to the office until labor day or most likely until there is a vaccine there's no point in paying a fortune to live in NYC with all the bars/restaurants closed. Would expect the vacancy rate to creep higher for the rest of the year until office workers really come back at any meaningful level.

What % of people ultimately come back is TBD, but nicer more residential areas of Manhattan are a ghost town right now.

 
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What the guy above said. plus:

  1. Anyone on the “about to get a mortgage fence” a lot of VP-Director levels were holding off and decided to pull the trigger (my current rental neighbor and a number of co workers)
  2. The mass # of kids (know at least 10+) who are LI/NJ/CT family rooted who are pausing, throwing shit in storage, and bridging the time with parents/GFs/friends/beach houses in non-NYC locations and not signing new leases.
  3. People who are straight up quitting/furloughed/laid-off and who only had ~24 months left with the whole “NYC experience” and were never planning to set roots long-term... CYA

It really is a pretty crazy exodus on many different levels. Fair warning, I am a cynical mother f’er, but I just don’t see this city returning to pre-corona level fun for the next 12-24 months. The end is no where in sight from my POV. “No one” wants anything to do with this place.

RIP crowded sweaty live music bars, the dudes visiting for long weekends, infinite dining options that aren’t in the middle of the god damn road sprinkling your plate with car exhaust, live sports, gym/workout classes... The list never ends.

 

Yeap

And anyone who wasn’t even planning on leaving is now itching to get out since no one is around anymore. I have even seen a fairly long term relationship end due to one party wanting to go hang out in the mountains rather than stay behind in sweaty nyc for the unforeseeable future

I’m back to grab some things and start figuring out my storage situation and there aren’t even any moving days available for the next 2 weeks

Nyc is going to be dead through at least mid-2021. Just get out now

 

^ this @chucs has it right, I would also add this exodus has been in the works for the last couple years

> https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/new-jersey-new-york-high-tax-state-… > https://dailyvoice.com/new-york/yonkers/politics/more-people-are-leavin…

Additionally, those who are in IB or S&T seats and do not need to be tied to your firms infrastructure and haven't been given concrete details on when you're going to return to the office it only makes sense to leave esp if your lease is ending(why pay NY prices when you can pay $1000+ less in another state or nothing if living with family). My team (non-trading) won't be in till at min till Q1 2021 even then it would be discretionary as everyone won't feel comfortable commuting through public trans. This is not taking into consideration vaccine developments

Although outdoor dining has helped in NYC, COVID put a dent in what really makes the city great as echoed above

 

I've heard of some S&T desks who have no intention of coming back to the office anytime soon so that gives you a sense of the scale of the problem.

I was cautiously bullish things picking up looking at the experience of European countries but the way things are shaking out in FL/TX/AZ/CA... no way. I'm not sure NYC ever gets backs to 'normal.' Whatever durable changes covid brings about, those will hit NY hardest. I'm just hoping I can get a good real estate deal in the next 2 years.

 

Hardly anyone here anymore, some came back recently and signed leases... why idk. I haven’t been here myself in 4 months. Disappointed to see Soho so messy and empty. Very strange going to bars/restaurants that are traditionally packed this time of year and hardly anyone there either because of the social distancing requirements or just not enough people out. I’m not sure if these bars/restaurants that are open can even break even with the limited number of people they can serve. It’s all very strange.

 

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