Will the next Banking Purge be in 2016-2017?
I've been noticing that a lot of the banks have been mentioned in the press for their plans to cut jobs in several different FO groups. Will there be another bear market and banking purge akin to 2008 soon?
Well, considering hiring and comp is nearing its 2007 highs...
Probably not. Great year for banks means that M&A activity may slow down over the next 2-3 years due to a variety of factors but the impact is probably going to be negligible in terms of hiring.
No. The M&A market is pretty hot right now. My group at my MM is getting the best deal flow that we've ever had. I can only imagine how BBs are like now. When you hear of FO cuts, you need to read the entire article. These FO cuts are in fixed income and trading, that is, parts of the bank that are heavily affected by regulation. The problem is that journalists are completely clueless about our industry, so when they say "Bank X is cutting 7,500 jobs in IB", they could literally mean anything from fixed income to M&A. What we think of as IB and what others think of IB is very different.
Great point Sil. These articles don't seem to break up divisions in the front office, and just classify the entire bank's FO under IB. I made the same mistake when I was reading about Deutsche Bank's cuts about a month ago.
Interesting points. I think I read somewhere that this year may exceed 2007 in M&A.
I don't know about that, but M&A levels are high. It's also easy for buyers to raise debt (at least the ones my bank works with), making buyers more inclined to pursue acquisitions.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/2015-becomes-the-biggest-m-a-year-ever-1449… It does say that 07 was best when including inflation.
this has been by far the best year to find a job since 2007. it's not even close.
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