1.5 More Years of Quarantine or Get Coronavirus Thoughts
I am curious to see what everyone's thoughts are regarding the future of coronavirus in the US. Many pandemic specialists say that anti-body tests will allow those who have had COVID-19 to go back to work while those without anti-bodies will have to quarantine until the vaccine comes out in the projected 1.5 years.
Do you all think this is accurate? How would the banking industry handle 1.5 more years of WFH?
I may be a pessimist but I think that this scenario is very likely because of a few reasons: - Some states are beginning to open up which will likely lead to another wave of cases according to Bill Gates. This will likely push the pandemic into at least the fall. - New cases are keeping at a steady rate without any clear signs of slowing regardless of what the news and president are telling us - No significant progress has been made in creating a vaccine. New drugs speed up the process for recovery but it will take at least a year to make a vaccine. Without a vaccine and with steady cases this pandemic could last way longer than we think. Add a second wave and we could be WFH for a long time.
I'm by no means saying your first point is wrong; there will be another wave. I'm just very curious as to why Bill Gates was your reference for this? Lol, I'm sure at some point a medical professional has said this publicly that you could reference. I just find it funny that Bill Gates was your point of guidance, that is all. Cheers
Bruh my first question was “why Bill Gates?” too. I feel like you picked the most famous name you could think of just for the sake of it being the most famous name you could think of lol
Gate is very knowlegable about this subject dating back at least a decade. He is funding a lot of research on a vaccine for Covid-19.
Gates has been funding vaccine research for a long time. This pandemic is literally his wet dream.
Bill Gates has been warning everyone about a disease pandemic for years now and no one in the Trump administration has listened to him. He has been very vocal about he believes will happen. I could list other people knowledgeable about COVID-19 and infectious diseases, but most people wouldn't know them.
Those are not the options. The economy will be safe to "open," in phases, when we have sufficient levels of diagnostic testing and contract tracing. No one is going to quarantine for 1.5 years, but society will certainly be changed for quite some time as a result of social distancing and crisis response.
"So far, the United States has only performed about 4 million coronavirus tests."
"Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated on Saturday that the country is conducting approximately 1.5 million to 2 million Covid-19 tests per week."
"Bill Gates said Sunday that new testing machines and methods should soon be able to get the United States up to between 400,000 and 500,000 tests per day, though that's 'just barely enough for really doing the tracking.'"
Since the beginning, our biggest problem has been our lack of testing. Once that finally gets to a point where it can be rapid and widespread, and we finally have an effective contact tracing system, people can begin to safely go back to work, starting in phases. Until then, opening nail salons like some southern governors are doing is moronic.
Haven’t been keeping up with this but wouldn’t the tracking system only really work if people who’ve yet to test positive get tested each time they choose to venture outside?
Contact tracing is more about identifying people who have been exposed and having them self-quarantine so as not to spread the virus further. Once someone tests positive, they work with a contact tracer to identify where they have been and who they have interacted with.
Some sources:
CDC
Buzzfeed News
MIT Technology Review
CRE is absolutely correct
1) We won't be in "quarrantine" for 18 months. Though until there's a vaccine, we'll be practacing mitigation such as physical distance and wearing masks. The situation is evolving.
2) Testing is key. We've only reached 200k tests per day, or roughly 1.5 million per week, over the past week. Most of April it was around 120k to 140k per week. Testing is still ramping up, but not quickly. In total, since this began, we've only tested about 1.5% of the population once.
To be diagnosed health after having it, you need 2 negatives. That means most people officially diagnosed with COVID wil have had at least three tests (the first positive test, plus 2 negatives).
^This last paragraph is really important. Just so everyone knows, and I'm not trying to dismiss this because it is serious, but people keep saying "Derrrr why is the projected death rate so low when the recovery/death ratio is way higher?". The reason is because they aren't burning 2 additional tests on healthy people/people that have mild enough symptoms to go home/not be hospitalized, because they don't have the testing capacity yet.
All I want to know is: when am I going to be able to watch a baseball game? It sucks not being able to watch sports.
Yeah but of all sports you want to watch BASEBALL????
Haha, me and about 50 million other people!
All eyes are on China and Italy. It pretty much depends on what happens in the countries that are ahead of us in the timeline
China's almost fully open already
yeah but gotta be on the lookout for a second bounce
I mean the country needs to ask itself if it's worth the ~6-10tr in lost output + debt to save at most 750k 70-80+ year olds (the imperial uni estimates of 1.5-2m are at least 2-3x too pessimistic given new fatality rates). That's literally 10 million dollars per person to save ~10 years of life. AKA 1million per life year saved.
Outrageously expensive if you ask me. But whatever I don't make these decisions.
Thankfully you don’t. Old people don’t come with a price tag.
In America everyone comes with a price tag. Unless they’re in the womb, then they’re precious. When they come out though.. my long portfolio >>> their life
Edit: Realized from reading my post it’s not obvious I said it sarcastically, since some people actually think this way
Naive to think that those kinds of decisions aren’t made every day or that destroying the economy doesn’t cost lives.
Vaccine may take 7 years. Even then it may not be effective. We will be ok. Just gotta make good decisions
If we quarantine the country for 1.5 years it won't matter whether or not we defeat the virus because we won't have a country. I suspect we are being insanely optimistic thinking that a vaccine will be available in 18 months. We never got a workable vaccine for SARS-CoV-1 (hint: what were those virology labs in Wuhan where this thing leaked out from working on?).
Damn it my boomer ass can't put a gif in hold on
Edit: they don't have the Alex Jones one I want. Here it is:
https://giphy.com/gifs/conspiracy-claim-theorist-svb8tKSIpGfHq
Weren't there reports of people in S. Korea getting reinfected after recovering from their first infection of COVID-19?
No, actually article from this morning points to these "re-infections" as actually just being false positives from the test picking up traces of RNA from dead viruses. The body can shed RNA for up to 2 months, hence letting the tests come back positive.
korea reinfection
RNA
Gotcha. Thanks for the good information. I obviously have't read enough about it lol.
so there is no chance of getting it again?
IMO, seems like the flu+ was a huge overshoot and we'll be dealing with the ramifications of the response for many years. I think media largely induced the panic and when the shock set in, the governors started their 'one-up' frenzy by increasingly tightening the lockdown measures. It would obviously be political suicide if a governor didn't impose adequate lockdowns and the state was then ravaged by the at the time 'unknown virus' - understandable.
Now we know a fair amount about the virus. It's not the Spanish flu, but it's certainly more lethal than seasonal influenza. It attacks the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Most governors seem to be on a huge power trip and are extremely reluctant to actually look at the data and dial back draconian measures. 1.5 years of WFH seems insane to me, even in NYC. We need to keep the nursing homes and hospitals on high alert, and those at risk should have their own choices to make.
If anything, this 'crisis' has highlighted how unhealthy most of the developed world is. Hopefully on the other side of this we start to see some improvements and more individual responsibility for ones health. It’s not normal for most of your population to have severe chronic illness. It’s not normal for children to have lifestyle-induced diabetes. For a healthy nation, this virus would barely be a blip on the radar. I understand that we’ll never reach a health utopia, but maybe we should at least work on it? Clearly, the economic ramifications have reared their ugly heads.
Your "o" is garbage, as is your description of it as "flu+"
It also attacks literally everyone else. Beyond that, it isn't just the immediate illness or risk of death that is worrisome, but many other long lasting problems.
Heart damage was discovered in 20 percent of patients hospitalized in Wuhan, where 44 percent of those in ICU exhibited arrhythmias; 38 percent of Dutch ICU patients had irregular blood clotting; 27 percent of Wuhan patients had kidney failure, with many more showing signs of kidney damage; half of Chinese patients showed signs of liver damage; and, depending on the study, between 20 percent and 50 percent of patients had diarrhea.
Ask yourself this, does something with a roughly .25% mortality that is highly skewed towards the elderly warrant a global shutdown unlike any other we've seen before?
To say that it's the "flu+" is to ignore all of the mitigation measures. We'll easily exceed the number of deaths in a bad flu season, in less time. And we don't mitigate for the flu.
Right, because they're totally reporting COVID deaths accurately.
Yeah, what did you expect after all of the precautions were implemented? The reason, the outcome is not far worse is due to all of the precautions that were implemented.
We are not going to be quarantined for 1.5 years but with that said, life will be different for a while. I am not very optimistic about the prospects for NYC where you have millions of people in a very small area. People are certainly going to be working from home for the rest of this year and perhaps part of next year as well. Making the issue worse in NYC, are the modes of transportation and their impact on the spread of the virus, Subways/trains are not going to run at full capacity for a long time. If subways/trains run at partial capacity, the commute is going to take much longer, which would be terrible for everyone who commutes.
Usually, people defined as leaders have a trait called humility. However, it seems that most of our governors aren't leaders, but rather extreme narcissists. Very few will acknowledge their mistakes, well, because they aren't true leaders. They'll continue to push along their fear-porn and 'just wait 2 more weeks'.
To your second comment, if Tokyo is up and running, I'm sure we can get NYC ready as well.
Lol no. I'd 100000% rather get corona than just be forced to stay indoors all day for another 1.5 years, that's no way to live. For all of those weirdos who are secretly getting a kick out of this and want to see the world fall apart, feel free to stay in your bedroom and order your takeout everyday. The rest of us want to carry on.
1.5 years of quarantine is borderline asinine. That will never happen.
The main reason why this became a pandemic was due to lack of testing and preparation. People were running all over with there heads off not knowing what to do. Testing continues to increase and we can assume by the Fall it will be in full force and we will be much more prepared.
No things are opening up already and will continue to open up. Hopefully slowly and methodically and with proper safety precautions in place. If you look at other nations as indicators - HK is nearly fully open, China is open, etc. Singapore opened too quickly and now they're getting more than 1k new cases per day. But one cannot contain the economies indefinitely and they will be opened back up.
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