AI and our futures
I'm sure AI is on everyone's top of mind lately, specifically as it relates to our jobs and futures. Personally, it's felt like a dark cloud hanging over my head and it's hard to feel motivated about the future when the thought of being replaced is always there. I often see people rationalize it by saying we'll always need junior bankers to become eventual senior bankers, and although I completely agree, let's be honest with ourselves here. Even if the need for junior talent will always exist, the AMOUNT of juniors needed will dwindle. All of a sudden analysts and associates themselves will become managers of "AI juniors". People will have less of an ability to jump between firms. I don't think this is far fetched at all. And of the humans that remain, we'll see massive wage compression bc all of a sudden not only are work loads lightened, but the demand side of people wanting these seats will exponentially increase. Everyone saw the JPmorgan article. That's only the beginning and in my view the canary in the coal mine. Th writing on the wall is there
Sorry for the random stream of thoughts but I've been thinking about this Incessantly the last few weeks, and how I should alter my future plans. Really curious what others think and feel on this.
I think you need to separate the signal from the noise and talking points. While there are a number of companies attributing lay offs or reduced hiring to AI, the reality on the ground is that during the COVID boom companies simply overextended their hiring and cost bases on the back of lofty growth assumptions which ultimately did not materialize. Now they need to right size and are attributing it to AI capabilities (despite being underwhelming / not game changer in reality) as that sounds better and allows them to side-step the fact they got their 5 year planning wrong. The job market and economy is just weak right now regardless of froth around a handful of mega-cap tech stocks making the market look okay.
I am mid-senior in PE and have not seen anything today remotely close to being able to analyst / associate. Will we get there eventually? Probably. But that’s quite a ways away and you still have plenty of time to start today and grow into a more senior seat which would be displaced.
More worried about the continued amount of brainrot it will cause. Students are already outsourcing their learning. Grown adults are sending AI workslop in emails. A functionally illiterate society is not a positive.
Agreed. There’s a difference between using it to speed up thinking vs. letting it do the thinking for you. If people stop engaging critically, we’ll end up dumber and more dependent — which kind of defeats the point of the tech.
We live in a funny society at this day in age. I'm in school and professors use AI, we respond with AI. When searching for jobs it is super easy to run your resume and job posting in Chat GPT to create the perfect cover letter. Employers are using AI to scan candidates and AI can even evaluate video HireVues, so in many instances the employer doesn't even get to talk to you on the phone or in person until you get through all the AI tests. It's a different world out there, lads and ladies.
I do think you’re right that the number of juniors needed will shrink, but the flip side is those who learn to use AI well might actually move up faster.
I have seen a lot of LinkedIn titles go from something like
"Doing X"
to
"Using AI to do X"
Literally from people who were not anywhere near AI before.
Interesting to hear that. I wonder how long it will take until there are actual IBD junior AI analysts doing the job analysts always did in the past. I've been getting loads of inbound in my team for new AI models targeted at the financial industry. It's only a matter of time...
My prediction within the next 3 years. Even sooner for the basic shit (running comps, market updates, PIBs, company profiles).
Maybe. The existing solutions (even for the basic stuff) are still not very efficient / well built though. Just spoke this week with a provider who claims to be able to build automated profiles, but formatting is crap, financials are not properly done, etc. Full of issues, it will take time (and a lot of human input) to perfect it.
I get it, it's rough. Personally feels like the current wave of AI is not going to lead to superintelligence (i.e. making all human jobs obsolete) but feels like a headwind to white collar worker growth
I hope the AI wave goes bust soon. Who knows, maybe China invades Taiwan in next couple years and sets back AI innovation by a decade. Anything can happen, it's not in our control. For now, just grind and make those dollars. And long term invest in QQQ to get a piece of all this. That's all you can really do
Haha, yeah — can’t control geopolitical shocks or how fast AI moves, so your approach makes sense: grind, get paid, and invest in the upside. Just hope the AI wave doesn’t crush your workflow before you get there. QQQ is basically the “buy the future” ticket while we figure it all out.
I believe there are two angles to approach the AI era:
1) people with creativity will be able to have endless runway to pursue their ideas at lower cost and friction. AI will create a huge amount of consumer surplus (more than Amazon did with products).
2) the lower barriers to entry will cause loss of business advantage (thus margin compression) and yield monopolies to only the biggest of the platforms (leaving cutthroat, destructive competition below).
Furthermore, I see barriers to entry the recipe for outsized rewards. So when everyone can vibe code, then the value of say software engineering decreases. That is just one example.
So, what to do? There are two things, I see:
1) get really good at enabling humans with AI and sell the “human” premium that will exist in the near term future.
2) win on branding. If natural language is based on made up words which is language, then owning language becomes more important and a scare resource. Owning domain names is one way to own language (it is like virtual real estate). Another way is to create words. Words like prompt engineering, context engineering are just a few years old. This is the new power, the power of language. Invent language, then try to own a piece of this. There is ever dwindling IP in this world.
I think “hyper local” will have its advantages. No better time to be a big fish in a smaller pond. Be it moving back to your hometown, a smaller city or state. Go where the inefficiencies are the greatest. At least thrive or wait out this wave during your productive lifetime, and hope your kids are better equipped for the future than you are.
This new era is not going to be good if you think too conventionally. The rules are changing. But if you are creative and have ideas, it is the best time ever to get obsessed with this trend (no coding required).
Now, if you want to pursue the conventional and traditional finance route, your saving grace is to be in a high growth sector and build professional credibility. Growth in places you didn’t expect will happen due to technological shifts. Products and services that were not feasible before AI, will start to grow. Identify, become experts, and solidify your position. These could be industries that are not industries today. There will be cross over skills. Better to be more flexible, adaptable, and opportunistic by understanding the human side of business and either enhance human value (while there is a human side) or be on the side that is working to destroy it.
Pick a side and then become passionate/ obsessed about it in your field.
Totally agree — AI is shaking up the game, but it’s also opening insane opportunities for creativity and human leverage. If you can enhance human value with AI, own language/branding, or dominate a niche where inefficiencies still exist, you can thrive.
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