With how the markets have been recently I’m curious to hear peoples opinions on buying a house right now.
It seems like the market is starting to cool but not dive. I’m in a growing city in the south (ATL/CLT) and I have a hard time seeing a housing crash due to the growing demand. What are you seeing in your markets and would you buy now?
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I bought last year (UK). how much were you expecting it to crash by? house prices dropped just 8% during the GFC
I’m not really sure. There were some spots in the US that went down a lot more than that in 08. I’m not sure that I see a crash happening this time. More just leveling off and less bidding wars.
According to FRED, house prices in the US dropped 19% on average from 2007-2012 and they didn't fully recover until 2016.
I think you're right. I'm not too fussed about a market drop, im doing a sort of geoarbitrage by renting out two rooms, and got received some government incentives to buy.
I had debated buying a property in South Florida in early 2021 but didn't pull the trigger. Kind of regretting it now that mortgage rates have climbed so much. Was recently talking to my boss who had his HBS reunion not terribly long ago and he says just have cash ready because there will be a real estate collapse coinciding with everything else. I'm not as sure given inflation's continued to worsen, but we'll see what happens.
I found some land I like in a place i like but I doubt i can get financing to follow through to the building phase. If I contract out it's construction I'm pretty confident I can get a 2-3 bed. For Roughly 75% of the inventory in the area.
Developing the land and prepping the build will run me about $15k. Unfortunately I'd need a contractor's license. I
The issue for me is that I'm a wage slave and although the area I like is ideal, the jobs just aren't there. With remote work things change, but really I don't know where I want to end up.
If you find something I would say pull the trigger especially if you know you want to remain in the area for a long time.
I work in development in a growing sunbelt city and I'm also looking to buy a house.
My prediction is that the market will at least start to normalize in the next 6-12 months as interest rates decrease affordability/demand. The big question in my mind is what will happen on the supply side. Many cities are issuing more building permits right now than ever before. We are still making up ground for lack of construction in the wake of the GFC but if we overbuild at the same time as there is decreasing demand then I could potentially see prices decreasing.
I just renewed my current lease for another year to let the market normalize so at least I can offer at or below asking and get an inspection prior to closing. In regard to buying while interest rates are high, my thought process is that if you buy something you can afford while rates are high, you can always refi once rates go back down and have lighter payments, plus decreasing rates will help your home appreciate.
My strategy was to buy way below my budget.
That way I don't think too much about it. It's stress-free and allows me to focus 100% on work b/c the real estate gains will be negligible anyways.
Same applies to you if you're in IB. Not really worth overthinking IMO...
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