Do you ever get worried living in a large city like NYC which is the number 1 prime Nuke target if things go south, with Russia and Iran and stuff do you ever get worried

This might sound crazy, but I’m very interested to hear with all the stuff going on right now if y’all are scared or not 

19 Comments
 

They are more likely to target more strategic locations like military bases where our nuclear weapons are stored. Targeting nyc with a nuke would mean the end of the world for everyone everywhere

 

Lmao it's not the end of the world for everyone everywhere, that makes 0 sense. It would be a devastating blow to the US and a big blow to ROW, but NYC is literally the prime target to take down the US. More important even than DC frankly 

Agreed there are military installations but we just have so many that it would be impossible for any country to hit them all at once. There's only 1 NYC though

 

Spoken like someone who does not understand the power of a hydrogen bomb. This aint Nagasaki. A true hydrogen bomb dropped on NYC has a kill radius of 40 miles. Any exchange by Russia/United States/China/ France/ UK/ Israel/ maybe Pakistan and India, will result in hemisphere wide destruction.

So no, NYC residents do not need to worry and should feel lucky that they will be glassed first and fully, and not have to suffer living.

 

Based on the most helpful WSO content, concerns about safety in large cities like NYC are common, but it's important to keep things in perspective. Here are some key points from previous discussions:

  • Crime Rates: While there are concerns about crime, the actual statistics show that the numbers aren't dramatically higher than in previous years. For example, crime in NYC isn't significantly worse now compared to the 2010-2019 averages. It's essential to be street smart and vigilant, but not overly paranoid.

  • Safety Tips:

    • Live in safer neighborhoods, even if it means higher rent.
    • Be aware of your surroundings.
    • Carry pepper spray.
    • Avoid wandering into unsafe areas, especially at night.
  • Perspective on Risk: The risk of being a victim of violent crime in NYC is realistically very low, less than 1%. Most of life's rewards come with some form of risk, and avoiding all risks can leave you paralyzed and ineffective.

  • Comparisons with Other Cities: NYC is not unique in facing crime issues. Other large cities like Chicago also have their challenges, but these are often sensationalized by the media. It's crucial to differentiate between media portrayal and actual risk.

  • Personal Experiences: Some users have shared their experiences of living in NYC, including encounters with crime. However, they emphasize that being street smart and maintaining a sense of purpose can help mitigate these risks.

For more detailed discussions and personal anecdotes, you can refer to the following threads: - https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/investment-banking/i-dont-feel-sa…</a">I don’t feel safe commuting to work in NYC - https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/investment-banking/new-york-crime…</a">New York crime getting out of hand?

Remember, while it's natural to have concerns, staying informed and prepared can help you navigate life in a large city more confidently.

Sources: New York crime getting out of hand?, I don’t feel safe commuting to work in NYC, I don’t feel safe commuting to work in NYC, Why not Chicago over NYC?, Why would anyone willingly choose to live in NYC / SF / CHI?

I'm an AI bot trained on the most helpful WSO content across 17+ years.
 

Let's think about nuclear-capable states, shall we?

  • US: Not going to deploy against its own citizens
  • UK, France: NATO allies and very close allies of the US
  • North Korea: Nuclear missiles would take 40 minutes to reach the US, and it would likely be focused on cities like Los Angeles, Seattle, or San Francisco, not eastern seaboard. 40 minutes gives the US significant time for a reaction or a counter-strike. The nuclear weapons function more as blackmail to keep the US and its allies from preventing aggression against Seoul. North Korea can take adverse actions South Korea and threaten to use the weapons more broadly. The purpose isn't attacking the US; the purpose is blackmailing the US into passively allowing North Korea to take what it wants from South Korea. 
  • China: It would be pretty devastating to launch a nuclear attack on your #1 trade partner, don't you think? Same with a hot war.
  • Pakistan: US has repeatedly allied with Pakistan over India, so it's unreasonable to assume that they would act against the US
  • India: India is much more worried about China than the US given the border situation. The US does not threaten India in the same way China does. India needs the US as a counterweight against China, even if the US puts a fly in the ointment now and then by supporting Pakistan. China and the US are pretty much tied neck-and-neck with being India's #1 trade partner, so India is truly in the middle and playing both sides.
  • Israel: Reputedly has nuclear weapons for a last-ditch "Samson" assault that would bring down the house. These badboys are only coming out if there's something truly existential, like Iran launching nuclear weapons of their own after enriching fissile material.
  • Russia: This is the most nuanced one. Official Russian nuclear doctrine more or less states that nuclear weapons will only be used if the Russian state itself or its territorial integrity is challenged. No one has invaded Russia. No one wants to invade Russia. Russia also gives itself an out to respond if ballistic weapons are used against allies, so one could construct a hypothetical where Russia launches as retaliation for a bombing of Iran, but Iran is not nearly important enough to Russia for Russia to squander itself on a nuclear attack for their sake. The most viable scenario is a Russian tactical nuclear weapon fired on Ukraine to win the war if conventional means are not enough to take the day. Senators Richard Blumenthal and Lindsey Graham saw the potential for this scenario and gave a joint speech where they said that the Russian army would be "destroyed" and "eviscerated" if a tactical nuclear weapon was used in Ukraine and irradiated Poland as a NATO ally, triggering Article 5 of the NATO Treaty (https://www.c-span.org/video/?528936-1/senators-graham-blumenthal-news-…) (quotation begins at the 6:00 mark). 

Nuclear war with Russia is unlikely and not worth worrying about.

 
Most Helpful

All of this reasoning only works if (1) all of the parties you mentioned act totally rationally all the time and (2) no one makes a mistake. History has shown both of these are not airtight assumptions (read up on the Cuban Missile Crisis if you don’t believe me). This also doesn’t account for the possibility of nuclear terrorism.

If you want to get an assessment of what experts think of the likelihood of nuclear war, would recommend this 2008 Oxford report: https://global-catastrophic-risks.com/docs/2008-1.pdf.

If I had to make a rough estimate, I’d say the odds of being killed by a nuclear explosion in New York during our lifetime is probably like 10-15%. To me though, that risk is worth it because I love New York and the low risk alternative is probably living in some random small town in Nebraska.

 

I'm honestly startled that the opinion of people who attend a Catastrophic Risk Conference should be held in such high regard. That seems like the perfect way to select for people who will overestimate the risk of these events or their prevalence.

You know whose opinion should be held in high regard? Investors. Investors vote with their money all the time, and the more accurately investors can analyze the world and make prognostications, the richer they become. You know what city has the most billionaires of any in the world? It's not Hong Kong. It's NYC. If these wealthy people and other hedge fund and private equity magnates were convinced of your 10-15% codswallop, do you think they would be living here? No. They would go to Nebraska like you said. Your view is not a rational one.

 

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