Election night is tomorrow, everyone post your maps. Four years worth of bragging rights to the winner.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/blank-2024-electora…
Good luck to all who are betting as well!
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I am getting more optimistic about the outcome. I am looking forward to my phone not blowing up from all of these political texts.
I have zero idea of what's going on--the numbers are ALL OVER the place--polls, early voting, national vs state polls, good polls vs bad ones. I will say if the map ends up 270-268 in favor of Harris there are going to be some seriously ticked off people because the Census Bureau (under Trump), for the purpose of apportionment, overcounted Dem states and undercounted Republican states such that it would have made a ~5 electoral vote difference in allocation to the benefit of Republican states. So, a proper census count would take that 270-268 Harris victory and reverse it to something like 271-267 Trump victory, which is crraaaazy. It's a nightmare scenario for trust in the system. I hope it's an electoral college blowout either way.
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/05/2020-census-undercount-o…
I don't think anyone knows what will happen. Polls are not as effective these days when Trump is involved, and maybe as a broader statement as well. Too many forces and no one answers these things anyway
MSM is only continuing to decline in importance regardless -- for good or for ill, populism can't be contained in a world of a free Twitter and free Spotify (podcasts) and free Reels / other short form video
Would flip the colors on NC, PA, GA, & NV, imo. But would def like to hear other peoples take, especially if you’re in those states
It would be pretty fascinating if Kamala won NC & GA and lost PA, just from a demographic realignment standpoint.
NC - Kamala's campaign were reportedly diverting ads and giving up after Hurricane Milton and dissatisfaction with government response
PA - toss up, according to Musk's twitter (Take w pinch of salt), record early-voting Republicans registered
WI - probably edge to Harris but there's a reason GOP had their RNC in Milwaukee
MI - again edge to Harris BUT plenty of Arab-Americans who are unhappy over Gaza and deem Joe Biden and Kamala as culprits (ironic given Trump is as or more pro-Israel than JB/KH)
GA - edging Trump ; polls say young black voters turning out for DJT
NV and AZ - Trump, casino moguls in NV backing Trump after COVID
These are my takes from across the pond. Would not be surprised if all of my calls go the opposite way, given how close this will be
Young black voters are turning out for Trump in GA? wild
It's difficult to make a map for an election that seems this close because a few point shift either way could create a map that looks like a blowout even if isn't in reality. Kamala can realistically win 319-219 just as Trump can realistically win 312-226.
It'll also be interesting to see how the narratives play out given different state laws in counting votes. Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan should all be called on election night, but outside of a surprise blowout, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin probably won't be called until the next day at the earliest and Arizona and Nevada not until potentially multiple days later.
If you take out those four states, Kamala could realistically go to bed with a 273-219 lead if she somehow takes Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan, whereas Trump would only have a 266-226 lead with those states. Of course, that ignores the greater implications of massive wins like that, as well as what happens if states get split in weird ways, let alone predictable ways.
Either way, I'll have plenty of booze on hand while I watch the results come in.
Trump is going to win. The liberal media always projects what they want to happen.
This forum, which is probably 80% conservative, has been less enthusiastic about Trump over the past several weeks. I view this an an indicator that highly educated and or independent voters will vote for Harris or not vote at all
I think it is roughly 60- 65% conservative, judging by the last WSO poll.
I guess I wonder about accuracy of polls vs betting markets these days. Smart money should be on the latter, esp given the decline in polling reliability in recent times (i.e. landlines cut while mobile expands, people not picking up random nbs, 'silent' voters, etc)
Have heard polls have also been massively changed in past few elections with Trump being given a boost by pollsters. Then there's all these swing factor voters (arab americans, male hispanics, etc). It's so hard to figure it out, but I wouldn't be surprised at either 1) a close election where Kamala wins or 2) a strong victory for Trump. Mainstream media has been biased this entire election towards Kamala, who knows how much Twitter / podcasting has been able to offset that in favor of Trump
One thing is for certain though -- MSM's ability to influence is going to be so minimal in the next presidential election and beyond. Legacy media (ex NYC, Wash Po, etc) is no doubt dying when you look at total subs, and there's so much alternative ways to get news (Twitter, pods, Reels, etc). So ability of coastal elites to shift things their way is going to decline over time, and even if Trump doesn't win the field becomes less unfair towards the next Republican populist candidate
Regardless on tomorrow, nothing to do but wait and see
Polls have tons of issues, but I fell like betting markets are worse. First, they're not deep, didn't one guy in France recently move the implied odds by like 5%? Second, they feel like sports betting to me, not a financial market. Remember, bookies don't set the line based on actual expected odds, they set it to get equal money on each outcome so they don't lose. It's a known fact that a good gambler can make money by exploiting this.
Liberal media: Biased
Conservative media: Unbiased?
The liberal media is biased. There is no conservative media in that their programs are for entertainment purposes and to stoke rage.
As a non American i feel trump is winning, This is about survival for him, if he doesn't win things will get tricky with his legal battles.
Also Elon has gone all in, Say what you want but the man is a serial winner
Source: Vibes?
Well the US election is a global event that affects almost everyone around the globe, I also said it was a prediction and gave my reason for it, don't know why you're being so harsh?
oof
> As a non American
You haven't heard? You should have come and vote!
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