Free money: Short Euro, Short insurers

So having a chat with el padre this evening about the french socialist leading hte polls, and he brings up an interesting fact.

Hedge funds are exposed heavily to Greek/Italian/Spanish debt AND

Their hedges are made with insurance policies., fully insuring these bonds.

So?

Will the hedgefunds accept a 50% haircut, avoiding a default, when they can get 100% if it defaults? Yea, sure....

So either the hedgies get their full 100%, the other creditors accept a 50% (lol can you see that happening), or no agreement is reached, the countries leave hte euro and it implodes.

Boom.

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