How cooked is Trump for the mid terms ?
How cooked is Trump for the midterms? He tried to TACO, but not even an enchilada will save him from this. What do you all think?
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Based on the most helpful WSO content, opinions on Trump's position during midterms are mixed and highly polarized. Some threads suggest that Trump has a strong base of support, particularly among conservatives and populist voters, which could help him weather challenges. However, others highlight significant divisions in the country and potential backlash from his policies, trade wars, and controversies, which could hurt his party's performance in the midterms.
The discussions also emphasize that while Trump has been a polarizing figure, his ability to dominate the political narrative and leverage economic factors like tax cuts and job growth might play in his favor. On the flip side, issues like immigration, trade policies, and investigations into his administration could energize opposition voters.
Ultimately, the outcome would depend on voter turnout, particularly among moderates and swing voters, as well as how effectively both parties mobilize their bases.
Sources: https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/trading/trumps-trade-war-are-consumers-and-investors-screwed?customgpt=1, How would Bernie be for Real Estate?, https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/investing/the-trump-effect-on-markets-a-financial-not-a-political-analysis?customgpt=1
Historically cooked.
Most presidents lose ground during midterms. Most presidents manage to do that without a disasterous economy, a rudderless and unnecessary war, ICE murdering civilians in the street, obvious corruption/enrichment by the president’s family, and almost daily stories of idiocy and incompetence from the cabinet. Oh, and Epstein. That’s not going away.
This is why they are pushing so hard for voter suppression measures. It’s the only way they have a chance.
I'm curious what it would take to get the remaining 41% (per Nate Silver) of voters who approve Trump to abandon him at this point. I am convinced (and Trump himself seems to be as well) that he could shoot someone on fifth avenue and not lose any votes.
But as @CRE has said, he has probably lost most of the "new" Trump voters who he cobbled together through podcasts and saying he would bring prices down, and that should be enough for a decent loss.
There's a significant chance this could be the inverse of Ronald Regan's 1984 election map, (He won 49 states) especially in the house. His redistricting push wasn't particularly successful, and may actually end up backfiring bigly.
The goal of gerrymandering is "packing and cracking": The idea is that the other side ends up with a small number of districts where they're expected to normally get 90%+ of the vote, while you get a large number where you're expected to get 55-60%. The risk is that if you're so unpopular that the votes swing by 10%+ it could backfire, and you could lose a lot of seats. Based on current polling, there seems like a big chance this could happen.
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Most likely, this will be a 2010 Obama type result. 50-60 seats lost, multiple senate seats. If the Senate map wasn't extremely advantaged to Trump, he'd lose that easily.
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