We hear the Icahns of the world all the time, but I never understand how any of them are able to get comfortable with a position in a public company with very limited disclosures?
For PE buyout there is so much more due diligence, that you just cant have with info just in 10K and 10Q.
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Does the concept of risk discounting say anything to you? Expectation value, maybe? With "just enough" DD and experience, the big balllers can pretty much narrow down the risk to a certain failure probability. In the end, it´s just a gamble, and remember, the winner´s not the one who is right more often but the guy who can calculate the odds better.
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