Tempted to stick a healthy amount of family cash on Obama winning, rationale being parents are high up in a large financial firm, and if Romney wins, then the economy has a better chance, so would earn more in the long run than if Obama wins.
Odds are currently 3/10 for an Obama (an event I see as a near certainty). If it's self hedging though, I'm willing to risk significantly more capital.
Have I got this wrong?
T
As with any bet - could you lose the bet and walk away knowing you are not financially / emotionally ruined for having lost it all? Can you afford the lose the money? If not, regardless of how good a hedge it may be, DONT DO IT.
Also - are you saying that if Romney wins your parents will make more money so you will inherit more money in the long term? I think that's a bit of a dubious strategy....
Yea, Obama has been terrible for equities during his first term.
And the banks are much worse off than '09 as well.
I don't know about your hedging strategy, but I already bet money on Obama. I'm not concerned with what I personally think should be as opposed to realizing what most likely WILL be...and adjusting my actions accordingly. So far, I'm 6 for 6 on calling election winners, so I put quite a bit up this time.
Honestly though, betting a huge chunk of family money doesn't feel right, I'd think twice about it. Maybe place a hedging bet on Romney with a bookie who's interpretation of events is skewed by their personal preferences. Barring a major disaster a few weeks/days before the election, this is a done deal as far as I'm concerned, but there always is a possibility of an upset, so please think twice before betting the family farm.
Good luck.
On a side note, anyone want to put up a WSO betting pool? I'm game if you guys are.
Patrick, does this fly?
the banks are still way better off (as are equities) than the levels they were at precredit.
THe world economy is going to meltdown after the EU and US elections. You heard it here first :>
It's preposterous to call that a hedge. Obama has this pretty much on lock at this point though.
You guys forget that Reagan was down by 17 points to Carter at this point in the race.
There is absolutely nothing going for Obama other then peoples infatuation with him.
The economy sucks. Unemployment is just getting worse. The stock market is artificially inflated (and whoever said stocks haven't been doing well... um they are up big time in the last 4 years, 16% YTD, which I anticipate a bubble here pretty soon). 50% of this country is on the government dole. The number of able bodied people receiving welfare is off the charts. Cities are going bankrupt. The real estate market hasn't ticked up what so ever. The same policies that lead to the 2008 Crash are still in place today, Obama did nothing to fix them. Student Loan bubble is in the horizon. Obama has raised taxes on the middle class. Dragged the USA into more wars on top of the ones we are in from Bush. He hasn't passed a budget since 2009. And worse of all Obama will have thrown us into an extra $6 Trillion in debt by the time the election comes around.
Obama has no plan but to attack Romney for being successful. That is the honest truth. Obama cannot run on his record, and he hasn't been.
If Romney can come out swinging in the debates, he can take this thing. I dont think its such a sure thing as most of you think.
I was being sarcastic. The S&P is up over 80% since Obama was inaugurated.
lol, I reread what you wrote... yeah, my sarcasm meter was off.
Yeah, I mean Gallup showing things tied = a lock.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx
[quote=TNA]Yeah, I mean Gallup showing things tied = a lock.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx[/quote]
Don't cherry pick.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_elect…
[quote=duffmt6][quote=TNA]Yeah, I mean Gallup showing things tied = a lock.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx[/quote]
Don't cherry pick.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_elect…]
Ok, so tied and Obama +2 with Rasmussen. Associated Press +1.
Hardly a lock, I think we can agree with that. If Obama takes a decent lead after the 1st or 2nd debate I will change my tune, but right now it is tightening up.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map
[quote=duffmt6][quote=TNA]Yeah, I mean Gallup showing things tied = a lock.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx[/quote]
Don't cherry pick.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_elect…]
Those conducting the polling should not be cherry picking. Most of the polls are skewed heavily toward Democrats. Many are using 5-15% more Democrats in their polls which is historically wrong. It is usually dead even or 1-3% Democrat favor that show up to vote. Obama will not be receiving a 15% boost in Democrats compared to Republicans this election.
For example, NYT poll on 9/13 had Obama as a 6 point favorite, while they used 13 point skew in favor of Democrats. Do the math.
dbl post.
Swing-state polls = worth paying attention to National polls = irrelevant
Headline on Drudge: GALLUP: O 47% R 47% InTrade Odds: 70/30
Remember, your friendly cable news station needs a nice and easy number to show its uninformed audience. Showing tables full of numbers on swing states is just too messy.
Didn't I just prove to you that the polls are skewed toward Obama, and not just the national polls but the swing states as well?
I think the liberal media needs a nice round easy number for their uninformed voters. If anyone actually took a look at tables full of numbers they would clearly see a bias in the polling.
Commence 200+ posts about political views, aaaaaand GO!
Seriously, how about the gambling?
........anyone?
I wouldn't bet any serious money on this, either way. It is way too close, regardless of what is going on at Intrade. Reagan at this point was behind Carter by 17 points. Obama has nothing going for him and cannot talk his record. Obama and Carter had similar records going into election.
Romney can take this with the debates.
Betting Obama at 3/10 is no fun with the money I would be willing to bet. I would bet Romney with 'fun' money. Better take home.
I wouldn't bet any serious money on this, either way. It is way too close, regardless of what is going on at Intrade. Reagan at this point was behind Carter by 17 points. Obama has nothing going for him and cannot talk his record. Obama and Carter had similar records going into election.
Reagan was down 7 points not 17 before his October turnaround and Carter had a high 30's/very low 40's approval rating after being primaried by kennedy while Obama is at a solid 49. You also had to wait in a line to get gas and Carter told people on national television to turn the heat off and to wear sweatshirts so yeah I think 2012 is a LOT different from 1980
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