Is Russel Wilson Worth His $140 Million Contract Extension?
It has been confirmed that Russel Wilson will be with the Seahawks for at least another four years with his $140 million dollar contract extension. Personally, I believe that this is the right move for the Seahawks as he has done a lot for them by winning at least 10 games in every season with the exception of one (9 wins) and has brought them to the playoffs on multiple even as the Legion of Boom was fading. He also has the most wins since entering the league seven years ago with 83 including one super bowl and another one which we all will remember.
I understand that this is an exorbitant amount of money, especially in football as he is now the league's highest paid player but can you really blame him or the Seahawks? I get that this leaves much less money on the table for them to retain other important players such as Bobby Wagner (who's in the last year of his contract) and Frank Clark (who they'll probably sign under the franchise tag) but it's not anything new that quarterbacks are getting the largest share of the cap. Keep in mind that the TOP SIX highest paid quarterbacks in the league did not make the playoffs last year so let that sink in. Many quarterbacks in this league seem to be getting paid much more than they're worth but in this case, with the exception of Tom Brady, he deserves to be the highest paid player in the league.
how about you try running an NPV on his future free cash flows whilst under this contract and then get back to us young cub
No but it's all relative. market says joe flacco, a tier 3 QB at best, is worth low $20m. matt ryan, another tier 3 QB is worth $20mm. etc. Russell is a high end tier 2 QB who is younger and more talented. so by that logic, he's worth more than $25m+. coupled with the fact it is a very weak QB market -- both free agents and college prospects -- which adds to his value.
for giggles this is how i would group NFL QBs at the moment: Tier 1 -- Brady, Brees, Rodgers Tier 2 -- Rothelisberger, Rivers, Wilson, Mahomes, Luck Tier 4 (lowest) -- Tannehill, Bortles, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Mullens, Tier 3 -- everybody else; lots of names here with wide range of skill level and age
feel free to dispute
Aaron Rodgers might be the most overrated QB in the NFL right now. Everything else I agree with.
these take in the totality and consistency of a player's career, not just results last year. otherwise mahomes woudve been tier 1. rodgers' supporting cast on both sides of the ball hasnt been ideal either. he still has the talent to change games at any time
Russell Wilson has the most touchdowns in the NFL since 2017 (including leading in this category in 2017), is one of two QBs that's played more than two seasons with a career rating over 100 (Rodgers), and has one of the highest TD rates and lowest int rates in NFL history. All while consistently playing behind garbage offensive lines and with Doug Baldwin (not top 10 might not even be top 15) as his best wr. He's a tier 1 QB and doesn't belong with Roethlisberger/Rivers/Luck right now. If we are going off of last season's production Brady is a tier 2 QB rn, his play during the regular season was pedestrian and his play in the SB was horrible. Roethlisberger is probably tier 3 based on the past few seasons, he consistently throws back breaking ints. Mahomes is arguably also Tier 1 but he's only done it for one year so I understand the Tier 2 placement.
How I'd rank QBs rn - as in who I would want next season. 1.) Mahomes (111.7 career qb rating - small sample size) 2.) Wilson 3.) Rodgers 4.) Luck 5.) Brees 6.) Brady 7.) Luck 8.) Rivers 9.) Deshaun Watson (career 103.1 QB rating) - worst line in the NFL last year and went 11-5 10.) Cam Newton (assuming he's actually healthy)
p.s. He deserves every penny, were he on the open market someone would pay him that (or more) fully guaranteed. With a league avg. QB last year the Seahawks probably go 6-10.
Do you think the odds are good that Rosen gets traded and the Cards use their first pick to take a new Q (cough Kyler Murray)? I'm curious as a Giants fan for obvious reasons...Eli has given us some really good years but boy if I'm not ready for something new.
They should have done what no team has ever done with a franchise QB - trade him. This offseason RW's trade value was arguably at its peak. One year left on a below market contract, and the ability to franchise tag him at a reasonable price for two subsequent years, if need be. So any team trading for RW would get him with three years of pay as you go contracts. No idea what the market would be, but if Mack was worth two #1's, that should be the starting point.
Say NYG trade their #1 picks in 2019 (#6 overall), #1 in 2020 and maybe a 2-3rd rounder later, the Hawks then draft the best QB available at #6. Playing out this scenario, say you can get Haskin's at #6 - the #6 pick in 2018 received a 4yr/$23M contract ($5.75M/yr).
You save $28M/yr against the cap and spread that money around, get a boat load of draft picks and hope RW's replacement can play at 80% his level, and you can pick up the 20% difference with the rest of your team.
Remember, the dominate Hawks team that won the SB was built around defense with a QB on a rookie contract...
I like your thought process.
Can a team franchise-tag a player it acquires through trade without offering him a new contract? I thought a FT could only be used by the team who originally signed him to the existing contract.
Also FWIW, a QB drafted at #6 would get a much richer deal than the OG picked at #6 last year. But I still agree with your thinking that there would be significant savings.
I don't have a problem paying top dollar for a superstar QB, and I think Wilson qualifies. I think there are two ways to win in the NFL: pay up for a top 5 QB, or get lucky in the draft and get a serviceable QB on a rookie deal. It's those teams stuck in no man's land where they're paying $20MM+/year for a mid-tier QB that are truly hopeless. No positional advantage at the most important position, and not enough cap space left over to dominate the rest of the field.
You don't trade 1st ballot HOF qb's in their prime
Uh... no. You potentially trade guys like Dak before paying him. Carr, Matt Stafford etc... but not guys like Russ and Rodgers. read this for more detail: https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/4/17/18411579/russell-wilson-seattle…
The Ringer is fantastic. Best paragraph from your link:
It’s pretty simple: The best thing to have in sports is a great quarterback making very little money, and the second-best thing is a great quarterback making a lot of money. There’s a significant drop-off from these two options and the next two scenarios: the third is a mediocre quarterback making little money, and the absolute worst thing is a mediocre quarterback making a ton of money. Wilson has been the first two things in his career. Most quarterbacks exist in the third and fourth categories.
Got it. Shouldn't even be considered because Ringer.com says so. Great analysis
That's a good point about the FT. I'm not sure about the tag and trade rules
Although I do believe the rookie contracts are set based 100% on draft pick #, and position doesn't have any impact.
I looked this up and you're right. Quenton Nelson at pick #6 got ~$23MM, Josh Allen at pick #7 got ~$21MM.
Andrew Luck
Derek Carr
Joe Flacco
Matt Stafford
Matt Ryan
Jimmy Garopolo
That is a list of QBs with the highest per year cap hit who have signed 5+ year contracts. Andrew Luck is the only one I could rationalize. The others have not turned out so well to this point. The trick to winning in the NFL is not locking up all your money in a few players.
Carr and Stafford have the talent to be solid tier 2 QBs...all the pieces have just never been in place for them to maximize their potential. carr still has time, stafford unfortunately has a lot of mileage now.
flacco -- opportunistic at best; had a couple one-off games in the playoffs ryan -- ehhhh, why hasnt he won anything with all the talent around him? and hes well past 30 now Garropolo -- TBD
Now that these guys are making $25MM and $27MM per year, respectively, it's a lot harder to put said pieces into place for them. They're stuck as QBs outside the top tier on teams without excess cap space to compensate. It's middle-ground hell that keeps you from being a real contender or from ever getting great draft capital.
He was league MVP and had a 25 point lead in the Super Bowl just 3 seasons ago. I'd still have him behind Luck, but miles ahead of the rest of the list, at least until we see what a healthy Garopolo can do.
I feel like every team wants a franchise QB. To just trade away a successful one or let him walk, is shooting yourself in the foot.
And, look at Brady. They've been paying cheap players around that guy, going back to back to back to back...
It's hard to say a QB is just not worth it. Plus, Russ wins, and he does so with a lot of style and grace too. To me, he's easily top 2 QBs in the league right now.
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