Rent Predicitions
Got hit with a 13% increase on my renewal notice the other week (tier 2/3 city). Got me thinking as to how permeant rents this high are - thinking (hoping) that people are getting a bit more cost conscious and no longer willing to dish out ridiculous amounts on housing (even with mortgage rates way up). Curious to hear everyone's thoughts.
NYC - Rental market was just starting to cool a tiny bit, but the mortgage spike and the insane pace of it have basically shut down the NYC sale market to a trickle, unless you're swooping in with cash (can get a good deal right now...) or in the $5M+ range.
Think the rent market is going to stay like this until there's a more severe recession. Demand is still far greater than supply, even at 20%+ inflated rents from pre covid you're still seeing crazy bidding wars and same-day rentals on very medicore units
It is cooling for sure but I think part of that is we're way past COVID deals and the rush of grads / interns slows down EOY into the new year.
Anecdotally, my unit was renting for $3,000 / month before I bought it about a year ago (post COVID deals). I just looked online and an unrenovated unit 30 floors lower just rented for $3275. I still think many luxury buildings are seeing 6-10% rent increases after adjusting for COVID deals.
When did you last sign a lease? How much concession are you getting? Saying "my rent went up 13%" is meaningless in a vacuum. What was your unit leasing for in 2019? If it was a 2,000/mo unit in 2019 and now it's 2,130, that's a reasonable rate of increase, you just missed the dip and caught the bounce.
There is a massive housing shortage in this country so it's doubtful your rent ever goes down for any meaningful period of time. Contrary to some rather uninformed opinions, the only way to alleviate that shortage is to build... but that isn't easy and most planning divisions, for municipalities large and small, are either filled with NIMBYs or politically beholden to them.
12 months lease signed last January with a month free for $1,770. Our building got bought out and they're asking for $2K now (this is a LCOL area not NYC). At that price point here there's some better/newer options. Thought it was a big increase given the off season and from looking around, a lot of buildings have a fair number of units available that aren't getting snapped up like were before.
So it sounds like you have other options. If there is a better apartment for the same price, I'd take that. To the original point, I can see why prices in winter 2022 might still have been depressed from COVID complications, so you may just be partially victim of some right-sizing that was going to take place anyway
FYI, that's a 6.5% increase from 2,000 to 2,130.
Lol my bad! Trying for easy math and still managed to screw it up. Typical
I recently moved into a 2Br in Chicago back in March of this year, 12 month lease and paying $3600/mo. Was eyeing similar layouts in my building going for $4200/mo late summer so not looking forward to my renewal in March 2023.
My fiancé and I were looking at moving to Florida at some point so I may try to negotiate a shorter term so I don’t have to go through the hassle of packing, but dependent on what my firm allows. Would be fine with only a 10% increase honestly, since I’d want to pay a mover and the extra stress from finding a new location etc just wouldn’t be worth that. If it’s closer to the 20% I was seeing, might rethink the plan.
I thought Chicago was cheaper than this. Do you live in a super nice area or luxury building?
Chicago is most certainly cheaper than some of the Tier 1 cities such as LA and NYC apples-to-apples, but I have noticed COL creeping up even before the inflation blowup (obviously further exacerbated by this). I’d say I’m slightly above the average for mid-upper luxury buildings (seeing some around the $3k-$3.2k range), but like yourself I value nice amenities, specifically the gym and sauna. I would think a similar living situation would be pushing closer to $5k or more in NYC, but comparing locally, a lot of higher tier options have seen large increases lately.
how good are they? Oftentimes I find buildings usually lacking in them, but decent ones would be worth a lot and so convenient.
has to be much worse than in a professional gym that you can enroll to for $100 per month. and he's overpaying like $500-700 per month for it, it seems.
That’s a bold assumption, especially considering at that price point for a gym you’re having to deal with a large influx of people potentially compared to a luxury apartment facility for only residents. I’d say it’s on par with most of the NYC Equinox’s I used to frequent, albeit on the smaller side of course. Those Equinox facilities were nice, but peak hours it would get crowded and I remember having to stand often in the steam rooms - haven’t had to here. Also, it’s not only the sauna that is impacting the higher price.
I have a great floor plan, view of Lake Michigan, accessible location to CTA, groceries, and Grant Park with all the museums and aquarium, and building staff that have made my time here better than I would have expected (from same day maintenance, to putting ordered food in my fridge when I had a late return flight and wouldn’t be back in time).
Am I missing out on a full fledged gym? Yes. Could I have gone cheaper with my apartment? Yes. Was it a personal choice to have these amenities all be in one building with everything else previously mentioned? Also yes.
It’s great, especially now that colder weather is coming up and I don’t have to leave my building. The relax area has an indoor jacuzzi, steam room, and sauna, and they’re all on par with Equinox type facilities, though no scented towels unfortunately lol.
I live in Charleston, SC in one of the more expensive parts and my rent for a 2BR went up 7% in February. I'm nervous about how much they are going to raise it, but I'm definitely not moving no matter how much they raise it. I love my location and the amenities.
Oh man this one hit me in the gut, Charleston is such a hidden gem, love to hear you're loving it, I miss that place so fucking much...King Street, Shem Creek...definitely worth every penny.
Just get a sugar momma, or daddy.
You're assuming he doesn't already have one
Mine's never going to. Parents own our apartment (and no, I don't live with them. They have their own house, that they also own). So long as they don't decide to sell and I'm not the buyer obviously. HoA may go up, but it's still only like $600/mo and includes all utilities and a lot of other perks.
The rent in my building however has gone up, but not that full double digits so far. Only like 7%. It's nice that the president of the HoA is also a major real estate broker and wants this building filled. "Can't buy the unit? What about renting it? Let's make this work."
Tier 2 city according to the other monkeys on here. I'd vote a tier 1, but that's just me.
I'm praying to all the gods out there that NYC rental market stays flat or only suffers tiny increases. As everyone probably knows, it's just gotten absolutely ridiculous here. I realized too late that this place is literally just a rich person's playground. And by rich I don't mean making 500k, I mean making 5M+
probably have to live in Brooklyn or smth like that. people there live on less than $100k, as I understand.
The macroeconomic view says that rents are going up. Higher mortgage rates mean people stay put (both homeowners and renters) and new market entrants will have little choice but to rent, making those rates rise steadily. The unknown area is among the aging population. Just as we have seen the labor force shrink due to retirements, there should also be an increase in home inventory over time. How far into the future that will happen, I will leave up to the reader to speculate.
The situation sucks in NYC. My rent went up nearly 70% from my prior contract which I signed in late 2021. Totally ridiculous.
I don’t understand why there are not more initiatives to rezone office space in Manhattan as only like 50% (correct me if I’m wrong) is being used? Makes zero sense. Seems like this housing shortage is manufactured to a degree.
That wouldn't help, only hurt. There was a great article recently about how most re-zoned and sold buildings end up as luxury housing that not only cuts out a lot of economic levels but also cuts down overall units. A building that used to have, say, 35 units of housing is converted to 8 luxury condos, bringing the overall capacity down. On the other hand, the builders will tell you that they have to do that to turn a profit because it's just so expensive to build anything in NYC. It's an interesting "mexican standoff" that probably doesn't have easy answers.
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