Theory: Is Ukraine Invasion A Ploy For NATO To Underestimate Russia's Military?

I have heard rumours that Russia has only been sending a token force of young conscripts from puppet states into Ukraine (as little as 40k), while keeping the hardened main infantry core in reserves (~800k). 
 

Is this seemingly disastrous conventional invasion in Ukraine a ploy for NATO to get overconfident and attempt some sort of conflict with the seemingly incompetent and corrupt Russian forces? Because those rumours of Russia holding back their main forces have been confirmed (or at least not debunked, even with satellite feeds and intelligence agents on the ground).

I think that those within the ivory towers of the Kremlin have willingly sacrificed a measly ~5k conscripts from puppet states and some outdated vehicles or vehicles that have fallen into repair to get the rest of the world to mock and underestimate them. Because seemingly overnight, the average person's perception of Russia has shifted from being an invincible war machine capable of taking on any military in the world save for China and the US, into a bunch of green, wet-behind-the-years young bucks with low morale. 

Comments (21)

8mo
UCSDThrowaway, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Because seemingly overnight, the average person's perception of Russia has shifted from being an invincible war machine capable of taking on any military in the world save for China and the US, into a bunch of green, wet-behind-the-years young bucks with low morale. 

I personally would've guessed the opposite tbh. But hard to decipher the truth these days. Its either some establishment propaganda BS, or literal Russian troll farms being the source of news

8mo
tierlistgoat69, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Huh? So you think Russia's currently reclaiming of their rightful territories in Ukraine was a display of military competency and might?

  • 4
8mo
UCSDThrowaway, what's your opinion? Comment below:
tierlistgoat69

Huh? So you think Russia's currently reclaiming of their rightful territories in Ukraine was a display of military competency and might?

No - I figured the average person had the opinion that russias military was largely weak and obsolete

8mo
tierlistgoat69, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Really? You haven't been seeing any of the "paper tiger" propaganda that the military-industrial complex uses to justify their exorbiant spending? Things like "Former Soviet Union developing invincible next-generation tanks", "Russia deploying supersoldiers in mechanized suits to Iraq", "New Russian ICBM will render the Iron Dome obsolete", "Prototype Russian destroyer has $7 billion railgun"

Funniest
8mo
UCSDThrowaway, what's your opinion? Comment below:
tierlistgoat69

Really? You haven't been seeing any of the "paper tiger" propaganda that the military-industrial complex uses to justify their exorbiant spending? Things like "Former Soviet Union developing invincible next-generation tanks", "Russia deploying supersoldiers in mechanized suits to Iraq", "New Russian ICBM will render the Iron Dome obsolete", "Prototype Russian destroyer has $7 billion railgun"

Man what are you even talking about lol

Don't know why I bothered with another political/geopolitical post 

Learn More

300+ video lessons across 6 modeling courses taught by elite practitioners at the top investment banks and private equity funds -- Excel Modeling -- Financial Statement Modeling -- M&A Modeling -- LBO Modeling -- DCF and Valuation Modeling -- ALL INCLUDED + 2 Huge Bonuses.

Learn more
  • Anonymous Monkey's picture
  • Anonymous Monkey
  • Rank: Chimp
8mo
Anonymous Monkey, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Putin built a billion dollar mansion with money that was supposed to be for building hospitals.... and in a couple years the place got overran by mold and had to be rebuilt.  😂😂  That's the kind of guy we're dealing with here.

The man is so deep in corruption and incompetence that anything he touches falls apart.

  • Anonymous Monkey's picture
  • Anonymous Monkey
  • Rank: Chimp
8mo
Anonymous Monkey, what's your opinion? Comment below:

It's real, a businessman who was building hospitals realized all his money was getting taken to build a mansion and defected... and then the photos came out.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56007943

8mo
Dick Steele, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I don't know, who knows what's going on really. I personally think Putin underestimated Ukraine. Plus, he's holding back, if he wants Ukraine to serve as buffer between NATO and Moscow than it makes he takes it with as a few casualties as possible otherwise he would just make more enemies. He might have to start getting more aggressive though because Ukraine won't give in and the Russian people are not for this war. It's in Putin's best interest to end this war swiftly but the longer Ukraine holds out the more leverage they'll have if or when negotiations happen.

  • Anonymous Monkey's picture
  • Anonymous Monkey
  • Rank: Chimp
8mo
Anonymous Monkey, what's your opinion? Comment below:

You're talking about a guy who had no problem scoring and celebrating 8 goals in a hockey game, while barely being able to skate.  You think he is secure enough to let the entire world think his military capabilities suck, as a long con?

8mo
tierlistgoat69, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Not sure by what you mean "Russia can't win". Russia can stomp any 2 NATO members combined (except involving the US) in a conventional battle anywhere near its regional power projection capabilities. Yes, even against the UK and France combined.

Russia can also absolutely gobsmack the US on Russian soil. If this seemingly disastrous Ukrainian invasion encourages Washington, Whitehall or Brussels to do any military operations near Russia, they'll be met with defeat.

8mo
glbtrd22, what's your opinion? Comment below:

So, Russia can't take a (one) city (Kiev) 200 miles away (regional power projection capability) from Ukraine (budget of $5 billion spent on outdated soviet era equipment), but it CAN stomp two countries over 3,000 miles away that have a combined budget of about $130 billion spent on cutting edge western equipment.

  • 1
Most Helpful
8mo
Balance.of.Payments, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Strongly doubt it. 

Militaries are no different from any other government bureaucracy: senior staff are often half-assed lifers who have zero chance of being fired or demoted no matter how badly they fuck up, decision-making is heavily skewed towards either inertia or conservatism (nobody wants to rock the boat), red tape and internal politics pretty much destroy any personal initiative. I highly, highly recommend you watch the miniseries Generation Kill to get an idea of how poorly managed the day-to-day operations of even the US military are. 

Now apply all these weaknesses to a country with extreme institutional deficiencies, like Russia. I have personal ties to the country and have so many anecdotes of how the culture of corruption affects everyday life (people paying money to bump up their GPAs, someone's brother essentially buying a promotion in the police). You can almost guarantee that a large portion, if not the majority of military leadership at all levels aren't there on merit at all. There's also evidence of maintenance deficiencies in a lot of their heavy equipment, indicating a lot of money/spare parts etc was probably stolen, which wouldn't surprise anyone. Even though the event took place over 20 years ago, I highly recommend you read A Time to Die by Robert Moore, about the K-141 Kursk submarine disaster in 2000. Really rammed home how institutional failures on every level led to a completely preventable military tragedy. 

Combine that level of rot within their military with a completely flawed plan at a strategic level - Putin, scarily, seemed to believe his own propaganda that Ukrainians would embrace the Russian forces as liberators - and it's not hard to see how this has turned into such an embarrassment. The Winter War of 1939-40 is pretty illustrative, with the Russians facing the same issues against a - on paper - vastly inferior enemy. Unfortunately for the Ukranians, as in 1940, I think the sheer fear of the consequences of failure will force the Russian senior military leadership to get their shit together eventually and achieve their conventional objectives. 

8mo
Addinator, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Agree with you on this - the more I read about it, the more it seems that Putin blinked by invading from a less than ideal strategic positioning if he his goal is purely to take Kyiv and topple the government. I'm sure someone with more military experience can better speak to that aspect. 

Maybe Putin is playing 5d chess - stumble, swallow his pride, embarrass himself/mother Russia - all to unleash some massive shock force to take over the whole eastern bloc. I don't think that's the case though or maybe I'm just being optimistic. 

8mo
tierlistgoat69, what's your opinion? Comment below:

That seems like exactly what is going on. He's baiting NATO to stage a large enough military operation after they see all the "low morale" troops, "conscripted youngsters", "rusted and leaking vehicles" and "defecting soldiers", then he'll crush whatever NATO lands on Russian shores, then blitzkrieg Eastern Europe while a divided NATO scrambles around trying to politically recover from the worst failed invasion since Barbarossa.

8mo
neink, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Debitis asperiores aut est deleniti veritatis fugit. Vel quod dolor autem veniam adipisci est. Maiores non eaque earum a iure.

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.

Start Discussion

Career Advancement Opportunities

December 2022 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company (▲08) 99.6%
  • Lincoln International (= =) 99.3%
  • Financial Technology Partners (+ +) 98.9%
  • Evercore (▽01) 98.5%
  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch (▲01) 98.2%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

December 2022 Investment Banking

  • PJT Partners (= =) 99.6%
  • Evercore (▲02) 99.3%
  • Greenhill (▲05) 98.9%
  • Canaccord Genuity (▲15) 98.5%
  • William Blair (= =) 98.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

December 2022 Investment Banking

  • PwC Corporate Finance (▲14) 99.6%
  • Jefferies & Company (▲05) 99.3%
  • Lincoln International (▲02) 98.9%
  • William Blair (▽02) 98.5%
  • Evercore (▽01) 98.2%

Total Avg Compensation

December 2022 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (10) $613
  • Vice President (38) $392
  • Associates (220) $255
  • 2nd Year Analyst (139) $163
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (19) $160
  • 1st Year Analyst (466) $153
  • Intern/Summer Associate (88) $151
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (337) $92