Been waiting for someone to talk about the vibes in their pods this week. Things crazy? Not in the industry but always had a passion for it, so interested.
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some ppl are making a lot others are blowing up
so just like any other week
bump
I would counter that "some ppl making a lot" thing, at least for Macro. This was more of a "maybe a small few ppl are flat, most everyone else is having the drawdown of a career".
This has been an absolute bloodbath in Fixed Income RV. Some directionally-oriented Macro players have managed it ok if they were on the right side of some of these moves in FX / Gold / YC, but the general stress in rates markets has been so extreme that most people have still found ways to be on the wrong side of these moves. Past week and a half has felt like March 2020.
Agree worst week of my career..
Skill issue. Smart MM investors make money regardless (or even because) of volatility and macro.
Why the MS?
B/c this comment reeks of someone who has never actually run risk, but has great selective recall for their DCFs which were "right" and spontaneous selective forgetfulness of all the ones that weren't when they tell their PM how much value they added at year-end
Also, yes vol is good generally but not, like, 5SD+ vol. Aka a meltdown
Exhausting. lol
Lots of mixed signals, so everyone’s kinda on edge. Some folks are playing it safe, others are trying to catch dips. Feels like everyone’s just waiting to see what happens next.
Gonna be lots of stories in the coming days of pod blow-ups. Already seen a few that have been forced to stop trading due to massive losses. Maybe someone was smart/lucky enough to be a positioned a certain way heading into Donald’s post. Guess what, they get smoked the next day. Absolute craziness all coming from basically one person.
Macro has been a warzone. Some guys got the US EQ/commodity short + US curve steepener right which saved them but a lot of other "consensus" short vol-biased risk has been challenged. Swap spreads, JPY rates, long end euro curve, etc have ruined years and blown PMs out. Anyone in RV has certainly just had the craziest week since Mar20. At my MM I have seen some huge numbers, mostly negative.
Thanks for the info - naive q but could you expand on the consensus trades a bit, what were they? Would be useful
Also how huge is huge on negative p&l
It’s been extremely mentally exhausting and I’ve doing more pnl watching than I’ve ever done but still positive YTD which feels like a huge win in this mkt.
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