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This has been an absolute bloodbath in Fixed Income RV. Some directionally-oriented Macro players have managed it ok if they were on the right side of some of these moves in FX / Gold / YC, but the general stress in rates markets has been so extreme that most people have still found ways to be on the wrong side of these moves. Past week and a half has felt like March 2020.

 

B/c this comment reeks of someone who has never actually run risk, but has great selective recall for their DCFs which were "right" and spontaneous selective forgetfulness of all the ones that weren't when they tell their PM how much value they added at year-end

Also, yes vol is good generally but not, like, 5SD+ vol. Aka a meltdown

 

Lots of mixed signals, so everyone’s kinda on edge. Some folks are playing it safe, others are trying to catch dips. Feels like everyone’s just waiting to see what happens next.

 

Macro has been a warzone. Some guys got the US EQ/commodity short + US curve steepener right which saved them but a lot of other "consensus" short vol-biased risk has been challenged. Swap spreads, JPY rates, long end euro curve, etc have ruined years and blown PMs out. Anyone in RV has certainly just had the craziest week since Mar20. At my MM I have seen some huge numbers, mostly negative.

 

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