What do you think of FIRE
What are people's thoughts on the FIRE movement? I admit i'm doing a bit of free-riding here, I havent looked into it in detail so I want some views by people who are somewhat more acquainted with finance (lol WSO).
Without looking into it, my initial impressions are:
1) It exhibits very cult-like behaviour which obviously is a double-edged sword which can swing both ways
2) Everyone should most defo be financially independent, but retire early? In your 30s? (as they propose?) I think that might shed some light on the sort of people this movement attracts lol ...
3) Building on 2), aside from the 'retiring by 30s' concept potentially systematically attracting some lazy people, it also systematically filters the sample of learners to young inexperienced people just starting out in the personal finance/ investing journey. Potential blind leading the blind problem.
4) These sort of personal finance movements are ntg new. They all have 1 thing in common tho - extremely layman concepts that are at times downright wrong (Rich Dad poor Dad, bullshit)
Thoughts?
Pipe dream movement enabled temporarily by the crypto & tech asset bubble. Not going to return in an era of depressed valuations and skyrocketing inflation and interest rates. Should have been a red flag.
In general, the movement of young people toward trading (not really investing) instead of working was another symptom of the times.
Are you saying the influencers and people selling this are going to lose credibility as markets shift and fall?
Honestly they probably won't. Anyone willing to believe in a grifter isn't going to turn around and admit they got conned when the person they're idolizing turns out to be a fraud. They'll double down and blame the market, or some other nebulous countervailing force, so they can continue to avoid the realization that they were scammed in the first place.
The real key to FIRE is not so much prudent investing (although that's critical) as it is low spending. The idea is to have enough invested that the annual returns fund your annual spending. It's easier to achieve this by cutting your spending than by amassing a bigger pile of cash.
I think FIRE appeals most to people who have a naturally low desire for status, which makes them comfortable driving older cars and biking instead of driving a new Range Rover, or going on hikes instead of joining a country club. It takes a certain type of person to be satisfied with this. My observation has been that the FIRE movement attracts a lot of programmer and engineer types who tend to be wired this way by default.
Definitely this. A lot of the FIRE stories I've read on reddit have been people reaching like $2mm in investments, which is like a $50k/year safe withdrawal rate if you're still young. You have to live very frugally indefinitely, and probably with a drastic income reduction from whatever earnings allowed you to hit $2mm early in life.
Yes, you have to live frugally to save the $2M, and then, when you reach the goal, you have to keep living relatively frugally so that you don't burn through it.
I would say that is wildly optimistic. One recession that wipes out a chunk of that value, or one sustained period of inflation, and all of a sudden you're eating into principal that you cannot afford to lose. Also, that is net of taxes. To withdraw 50k a year after tax from a 2mm pot of money requires some pretty strong, consistent returns. Like 5 or 6%, I would think? That's achievable, but not if you need absolute certainty that you're going to be getting that cash every year. Can't afford to put that into an investment that won't pay guaranteed interest/dividends every year, since that is all you're living on.
Let me tag thebrofessor on this. I remember reading his, "What to do about money" (not the exact title, but you get it) threads.
Thoughts?
Who wouldn't want financial independence and the ability to retire early? I think the movement sells a false dream though in that if you aren't making a good income, it's probably unrealistic to achieve this. Also, I think who you choose to marry will play a huge factor in this, if your wife or husband isn't on the same page as you when it comes to investing / saving it's kinda pointless.
The actual "FIRE" cult thing has really only been popular for the past, say, 10-15 years?
What else in common with the past 10-15 years? Declining interest rates / QE / ZIRP / above-avg stock market returns
Wait til they see what happens next
No reason to believe returns going forward wont resemble what theyve been in the past. Agree FIRE boom happened in part because of very high paid tech jobs going to a population that really doesnt care as much about status (outside of getting a Tesla) compared to other high paid careers (lawyers, doctors, bankers) - but it has been a thing long before Trump pump and low interest rate bull runs
6-8% returns, which can be expected going forward as much as anything else in this world, is really what it's based on, and having very low spending.
Interest rates were declining for 40 years though.
Lol no they haven’t, maybe from all time highs in the 80s.
And you don’t think they will decline again in the future?
and?
I said rates had been declining for 40 years. You said no they hadn't. So I posted the data. If you don't understand the implications of that I can't help ya. Anyways we've lost the plot here, I'm out.
It’s ok - the whole movement is predicated on low spending even in retirement. I’ll easily have $1M in investment accounts by the time I’m 35, but to raise a family on that with no more income would be extremely difficult
It just tells people to save the majority of their income, max out tax advantaged accounts, and invest in passive index funds. Compared to trends such as the Crypto movement and Wall Street bets it’s definitely much better for the avg. person. I don’t see how not spending and buying the sp500 is bad for anyone under any circumstances.
Agree with some of the points that have been made and that it’s almost impossible to achieve if you don’t make decent money (e.g., 6 figures plus) and you need to be very frugal in your “retirement”. At a certain point trying to save an extra 50 cents consumes more time than it’s worth. However, the 4% withdrawal rule many of them talk about seems unrealistic given the new macro economic environment going forward.
There are two types of “fire” - hard and soft fire. The “soft fire” crowd plan to keep working but do something less well paid but more meaningful (e.g., be an artist) while the hard fire types just want to stop working all together.
Overall tho, probably one of the better online finance movements and can’t really disagree with the core message (although these types of things always seem to get a bit cultish).
As I have moved away from WSO and more to Reddit (although they quickly ban you for trolling and riling people up so I’m perma banned from like 40 subs lol), I have found that the fire subs are pretty cool.
I actually post a lot on the fat fire sub and am verified there, so I don’t troll and take it seriously. You can learn some pretty cool stuff on that sub, and they give great tips of how to grow wealth.
Unless you’re doing chubby of fat fire, I think the concept is borderline retarded. What’s the point of retiring early if you have to live like a poor person? You hate work so much, you’d rather eat ramen and fly stand by?
On the inverse, spending the limited time you have on this planet - especially the 2 decades where you are 'young' and able to do anything, cramped up in an office all day is equally as retarded
different strokes
idk man tell that to steve schwarzman and warren buffett
My job isn’t like the horror stories the whiny analysts post here. Every job makes you work but not every job pays you mid six figures for it. If you have a normal boss, this is just a normal job where you are overpaid.
Take all the crying you read here with a grain of salt.
Kinda just sounds like you're taking the extremes of the movement as a blanket assessment?
The point of the movement as I see it is encouraging people to 1. Seek higher incomes actively to allow them to build investments faster 2. Be very conscious about spending 3. Invest savings in high yielding investments or generally allocate capital smartly 4. Be able to live off your investments earlier than normal retirement age (which is like 60+ btw) while removing or REDUCING the work you do.
Yes some people want to live like a poor person but there are ways to do the above without doing so. Nothing in there about retiring at 30 either. Some people have goals for 40, 50 even. Regardless as long as it's before the normal retirement age (not sure on US but in UK it used to be 65), then it's retiring early.
Now, none of this is particularly revolutionary but you'd be surprised at the lack of personal finance knowledge of the average person. The movement puts it all together and gives people principles on how they don't have to work until they're old.
Does it only work for high income people? Depends. We, as finance people, generally have a warped view on spending and incomes. There are people in areas of England (although probably not London) who could absolutely retire on like £20-30k after tax.
Nothing new about FIRE. The concept has been around forever. Maybe now it's just branded as a thing. I remember a loooong time ago, in my 30s, I was hoping to earn enough to retire at 40. As you get older, what these kids will realize is it's not about retiring, but rather being able to avoid the things you don't like. If you actually liked what you did (I mean really liked it), why would you want to stop doing it? Life is about a lot more than money. How do you find enjoyment? There are huge benefits that come form staying actively engaged (mental capital, social capital, experience capital, prestige capital, oh yeah and capital capital).
The other thing these kids need to realize is "life happens". Unless you made a boat load and have removed it from harms way (and even if you have), life will throw you many curveballs. Health, providing for family, natural disasters (very real if you live in coastal states), etc. You never know what's going to bite you.
There’s not some cult or anything. The core concept of FIRE is that the ratio between your savings rate and spend rate determines your ability to reach financial independence. If you save 100k a year and spend 50k a year you have earned yourself two years of financial independence by definition, ignoring lifestyle changes, inflation, and investment return.
That’s essentially it. All other topics are derivatives of this concept.
This is a great mentality to have when approaching financial planning imo.
Will also add Mr Money Mustache is one of most influential personal finance blogs I’ve read
no you don’t have to adopt everything from it, but there’s something to learn for almost anyone.
FIRE does take a certain personality type though. But more realistically instead of the “retire” part it’s pivot to something you truly enjoy. Example you reach financial independence, “retire” , and sell stuff on Etsy if that’s your jam or work at a cafe a few days a week
supplemental income and very low spending rate can take you pretty far
the FIRE Reddits are an absolute snooze fest. the advice on 95% of threads are live frugally and put your money in an index.
"Hi sir, do you have a moment to talk about the good news of Vanguard? He's a great man, that Jack Bogle."
There's another community called BogleHeads which is basically the boomer version of FIRE. And they literally worship that man, named the whole damn site after him.
I also find it very sketchy that the subreddit bans any discussion of gender. The idea of only working until you don't have to anymore instead of providing for a wife and kids flies in the face of gender roles, and they aren't willing to have that discussion. I think dating would be very hard with something like FIRE unless you have a very high paying job, and having a family would be even harder.
FIRE? I think Ja Rule just ripped everyone off . . .
We all want the FI part of FIRE …… What we do then is going to be a personal choice.
I think the movement as a whole is a useful way to jog us into examining what we value, what our goals are and if the things we’re spending our money and time on get us closer to those goals.
For some of us, that might be funding ourselves during a startup while we get it off the ground but before we can raise.
For others it might be buying a small LMM company or rolling up a few with some friends and selling it on.
Its pretty easy to get caught up in having a nicer apartment/bigger mortgage, nicer dinners, fancier vacations, more watches, suits, cars. None of those are intrinsically good or bad.. but going too hard on one or more of those can definitely impact your choices 10 years down the road when you want to pivot. They’re essentially the Golden Ball and Chain of your own making and make the golden handcuffs all the harder to break.
Live well. Travel. Spend freely. Treat yourself and others. But be realistic about what your income and savings rate can support. And what your goals require. Find that balance. Or don’t, you’ll still be ok.
IcedxTaro thanks for the tag, good topic to discuss. my thoughts on it are people should be free to do whatever they want to do and that I'm glad technology has democratized investing so people can get access to products for free/cheap as well as share ideas that were previously monopolized by people in jobs like mine
FI? definitely, everyone should chase that so they don't have to rely on daddy gummint or family to ensure you survive
RE? nah fam, I love what I do, plus I'm way too conservative with how I view financial planning so it doesn't work for me for a few reasons
so yeah, I do think people should have a high savings rate, but my life experience has taught me that there is a point of diminishing return, and my reaction to much of what I've seen in the FIRE movement is that they're beyond that (sacrificing current life experiences in order to fatten the war chest). I'd rather have people have a high rate of savings and a high rate of spending (hint hint: this requires you to keep fixed costs and material purchases LOW), and then work towards arranging your environment to be one where you don't feel enslaved
The only life experience you mention that is against FIRE is eating out. 'Retire Early' especially for that crowd isnt sit in an unfurnished home watching paint dry. Almost all of the activities people engage in can be done very cheaply:
- hiking
-over night camping
- cycling
- surfing
etc. Sure each niche you can spend as much as you want, but FIRE is really more about chasing fulfillment through activities like the above over the trap of new car, new clothes, big McMansion, etc. You can even travel for cheap, though your mileage will definitely vary (staying in hostels compared to hotels). But you can travel basically anywhere in the world for a week for $1,000 - $1,5000 all in if you're thrifty enough
The ' you may die at 50' argument is actually more supportive of FIRE than not.
Why would I ever want to retire? I will bore myself to death. As far as I am concerned I am already retired, because I like my job.
get a hobby
Elon Musk doesn’t believe in FIRE. He had a chance to retire and live the easy life when he made $180M.
Hmm, yeah i guess. Does Jesus believe in FIRE?
Jesus is part of the Trinity which means He is the Holy Spirit and the Holy Spirit IS Fire…🔥
At Op:
1. Cult-like behavior is how a lot of things keep going. Look at any MLM, if someone did 4 minutes of research they'd realize only the top people profit, and due to the "limit" of people on the planet, you're probably not going to be successful. People subscribe to the dream (work from home business, just do this and you can retire.) In a way, we all subscribe to a dream when it comes to careers (people dream about doing deal flow, not updating Powerpoints).
2/3. You ever see Office Space, Ron Livingston saying he would do nothing if he had a million dollars? There's a lot of people out there like that. They're not really interested in anything, don't have anything they really want to do, don't want to go to a job every day, don't want to put in effort to get promoted, and just live easy. Not that there's anything wrong with that in a sense (just as not everyone can be president, not everyone can not work), its just hard to do. On blind leading the blind, that's how a lot of people are, they find a "stock tip", but don't want to take the time to learn to invest. It happens in other areas of your/their life as well.
4. Part of most of personal finance is people want to have it simple. Its why rich dad/poor dad or Dave Ramsey works, it doesnt apply to the best way to do it according to math/finance, but it sets a plan, people like plans.
Overall, the problem is everyone looks at the extremes. Ether you're chained to a desk for the rest of your life, or you need to FIRE by age 24 and live in a van. The gray area can exist.
I can see it both ways,
for FIRE,
Pro- why work for things that don't matter, do you really need to travel to every country, or eat every meal out, or have every streaming service.
Con- what happens if your investments go down or you have a major expense (health); also, do you really just want to go through life not experiencing anything?
For working,
Pro- its good to work, keep making money, you can afford to do things, live a better life. Get promotions/raises, you do get vacation time.
Con- time is a valuable resource, if you have 5 mansions on different coasts, but no time to go to each, do you really have 5 mansions?
How is not experiencing anything a con for FIRE? I assure you the type of experiences that can be achieved via unlimited free time and pursuing cheap pleasures exceed that of what you can spend money on. The best things and moments in life indeed are free. Will make exception to some things (skiing at top resorts, taking private planes to remote islands to hike/scuba, etc.) Ive experienced. But luxury cars, fine dining, boat parties, ec. doesnt equate to something like a multi day rock climb & hike where you see the sun setting over the mountains and you are truly present in the moment. Or playing a show at a local dive bar with friends even if the pay is peanuts. Or meeting another group of travelers at some remote hostel
FIRE is more about a paradigm shift of how to approach life and what you get value out of. Unless you are talking about work experiences with the above and again , that is a coping mechanism. Almost no one works the job they do because they want to. If it's your own business that's something else.
If I could I'd change FIRE to Financial Independence Remote Entreprenuership for best mix of both worlds. Flexibility, freedom, mental stimulation, and purpose. Will concede with FIRE that fulfillment comes from purpose and being a part of something bigger than yourself. You need to have a goal of some sort if retired. It doesnt have to be monetary (it could be climbing Mt Everest) , but you have to try to get scalps on your wall whether real or not. Will also concede that have no idea how the equation works when you factor in children as well. But it's such an alien concept to the vast majority of office workers because they are absolute drones with their lives and their finances, and succumb to peer pressure and herd mentality on making major decisions. FIRE folk are weird and I like that about em
True. Its all about how you look at the problem. I was coming at the problem as what people would see in general.
However, even without data, I wouldn't blanket say that "almost no one works the job they do because they want to." In some ways that is a true statement, but in other ways it is not. I would most people work the job they aspire to (if you work hard you can probably get a job more align with what you want).
Additionally, I would agree that a lot of the best moments in life are free. I would add that the things you listed can all be accomplished simultaneously while having a job. But I get what you're saying. I think we have a lot of people think they need to see things around the world but have never truly connected with another person.
I get the FIRE movement, but its somewhat a tragedy of the commons, in that, the people do who FIRE expel people who work corporate jobs/office jobs/jobs, but by those people working those jobs, it allows for FIRE. Its kind of like investing in a way. For example, big picture, if everyone was like Warren Buffett than no one would be Warren Buffet, to be a great investor as he is, he needs people to act in a certain way. Meaning, for Buffett to make money on KO stock, he needs people to use money to buy Cokes each day instead of investing that money. Now everyone can be an entrepreneur.
The only thing that's ever interested me about financial independence is that it clears the path to pursuing bigger and better things than what you could do while working for someone. That could be entrepreneurship, non-profit stuff, writing a book or whatever it is that you always really wanted to accomplish but couldn't focus on when working for The Man.
To the extent FIRE is about that - freeing up your time so you can really make your mark - I'm all for it.
What I've seen anecdotally from FIRE is that it's a lot of hippie dippy types who aren't doing a lot with their newfound freedom besides riding their bikes all over town to pick up organic feed for their chickens or whatever. Everyone can do what they want, but I'd question how healthy that is long term. I think purpose is important to health.
Just commented in another post that I'd change FIRE to Financial Independence Remote Entreprenuership.
The biggest drawbacks in this thread to FIRE are the lack of income coming in and the risk that exposes the individual to, as well as not being able to derive purpose in ones life from achievement that a corporate structure presents. If you truly retired at a young age youd have so much time to do 'work' that you enjoy. Like you said it could be non profit consulting, writing a book, podcasting, starting a small business, starting a blog or youtube channel, etc. I firmly believe that the type of people who post here are smart/capable enough that with the free time could monetize any of the above. Would they be able to turn some blog site into a six figure business? Maybe not. But could they actually make money from the above and enjoy building something on thier own? Almost surely.
This is exactly where my head's at. I think a lot of people my age are kidding themselves if they think they can retire in their 30s, or even 40s, and be cool doing jack shit all day long. Granted, I actually enjoy business to a large extent and would always want to work in an operational or investing capacity to some degree, but I just don't think someone who is forward-looking and ambitious enough to actually be set for 40+ years through investing could suddenly go from running at 100 MPH to 0 and be happy about it.
I pursue a less intense version of FIRE because I really just care about the FI piece. I'd love to, for example:
1. Not feel bad about taking a job at a NFP whose mission I believe in because it pays less than my demanding consulting job
2. Have the option to take a huge paycut to move abroad or take a remote paying job that will keep me occupied, but also travel through Latin America while I'm working.
3. Pursue part-time or short-term contract work where I can decide how much time I want off, etc.
Maybe I'm lucky that I don't completely hate finance (I only hate the culture of finance/consulting, but that's a topic for a different day), but my unhappiness from the corporate grind mostly stems from the fact that I have to put up with so much BS and politicking just because I need that biweekly paycheck to keep rolling in. If I'm truly able to invest and live passively to where I can take less demanding work and not have to worry about this stuff in order to keep climbing the ladder, I think that in and of itself would be extremely liberating.
Another thing that nobody mentioned is you have to be willing to kiss dating and family goodbye. You might be okay with travelling the world in hostels or moving to Indonesia but good luck doing that with a spouse or kids.
I think it would be cool to the point you can pursue passion projects, think more deeply about interests, spend more time getting healthy. in theory you could FIRE and , for example, start a travel vlog and eventually monetise it. one of my favourite YouTube channels a few years ago were a couple who bought a small yacht and sailed around the world spear fishing and exploring remote islands, and judging by their Patreon and YouTube views, they were unquestionably making >$300k p/a, and I believe they were gifted a new catamaran too. the best thing for me when I have been out of work for period of time, is getting 10 hours of sleep a night, that is supposedly unhealthy but it helped me think very clearly.
If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. I find that people like to put up a life, but in general, it is never as it seems.
very true
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