What will the next bubble be?
"The only thing worse than a new bubble would be its absence".. so what is your take?
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Career Resources
Facebook, Twitter, Groupon etc. if they ever IPO
ding ding ding
That's the current bubble - what's the next?
Carbon tax credits
mcdonalds, wal-mart, the gap, Starbucks, disney world, baseball, wax lips, sushi, taco bell, rodeos, bed bath and beyond, the Alamo, bandaids, sportsmanship...books
The FED
Student debt.
Freedom.
Green-Energy
http://techcrunch.com/2011/04/10/peter-thiel-were-in-a-bubble-and-its-n…
Higher education.
Gold
Agreed, either Web 3.0 or the massive shitfest of student loans right now.
Youkou (YOKU ADR)
The next bubble is all this talk about the next bubble. When you are expecting it, it just won't come.
If I had to give a real answer though, it'd be student debt. Consumer credit has been contracting for a while, minus this one caveat.
Web 2.0 fears are overblown. A lot of these companies do not have unjustly valuations as they did during the tech bubble. The fact that some people on this thread are calling it "Web 3.0" goes to show how little they know about the technology industry.
bond market
I don't believe higher education will be the next bubble. Facebook, twitter/ social media if they ipo is an interesting guess.
tuition hikes have outpaced inflation almost 400% in the past 20 years.
you'd think that fuckin bubble would've popped by now.
Let's say for argument sake the next bubble is student debt. Does anyone have any good ways to play it? Who has the most exposure? Any pure plays?
The federal government will keep that from happening by simply buying up bad debt on student loans.
I agree that it is higer education and the things that go with it. Student loan debt, construction debt, bond debt, ect ect. The problem is, its almost a necessity to get a degree yet what advantages do 90% of the degrees given out these days even give to the holders? People are eventually going to figure out that there is a better way than the traditional college route. When they do the shit will hit the fan
^^^look into Eisman's strategy.......he has been calling this for awhile now.
here is an article from May 2010 with Eisman's prediction as referenced by cplpayne above:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-27/eisman-of-big-short-says-se…
I just looked at the charts for a few of the public for profits and they got killed between May 2010 and Nov 2010 so we may be a little late to the party but there is still some meat on that bone
I'll go broader and say government debt. Student loans are government backed, so, combined with the deficit, we could just add student loan debt to government debt. There is no way we are paying this debt down, nor is Japan or most of Europe. We have seen what a bit of instability can do in Greece; it seems realistic that a moderate shock could collapse the whole house of cards.
I'd say commodities based on their recent appreciation, but it seems reasonable to buy them when currencies seem unstable.
I don't think we can call the Facebook, Groupon group a bubble yet. They are stupidly overvalued, but they haven't really infected mainstreet. And they aren't big enough (even on these valuations) to cause any sort of crisis.
I don't believe in Greentech either, but the government will support it. Both parties can justify spending money on it, so cutting spending is political suicide.
double posted
Higher education and social media tech (still zero value added if you ask me.)
One thing I find interesting is the increasing tendency of the consolidation of various industries. It seems like every tech and healthcare company and their moms are starting J&J style warfare.
Might be a good thing might not. Maybe a little off topic but it's going to be interesting to see how these inclinations affect the attitude of future entrepeneurs. Not really sure if the incentives of "simply producing an innovative product/service the person is confident of " and "creating a company to generate value and sell it off to a megacorp" are the same.
Not so much a finance related bubble but none the less happening, fat girls.
Cupcakes
Good call, have you seen all of that cupcake related shit on food network now. Its only a matter of time before ratings bomb on that shit.
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