When Will Fed Raise Rates?
If unemployment drops over the next few months and COVID stays (somewhat) under control, would that be enough to get rates back up?
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1st question:
2022 or 1H2023. Good luck tryna find a a fortune teller more accurate than that.
2nd question:
Yes; obviously.
Is it that obvious though? There is a growing narrative that despite low unemployment and a strong economy, the Fed will continue to keep rates low due to the large fiscal deficit and rising federal debt.
No that's retarded. Stop watching YouTube
It definitely wont be this year 2021 for sure.
The question is really whether it's 2022 or early 2023 at latest. I would venture to say they want to keep pushing this as far as possible. There really is a new norm out there. Last time rates were not to the floor as they are now, you didn't have half a billion people buying stocks with smartphones in their pocket along with all these financial social media stars that have sprung up.
Everyone wants to put their money somewhere and equities have become seen as a safe haven to surpass inflation and shitty yields out there. The more risky bunch allocate some into crypto. No one wants to sit around their whole life for a measly ~6% anymore. I think we will see money continue to pour in like we've never seen before into the equity market. The people want freedom.
There's so much damn money sitting on the sidelines now I can't see outside of a catastrophe how the indexes could take more than a 5% beating before people start throwing their cash to catch the "discounts" and YouTubers yelling at their fans to buy the "dip"
Interesting take...in this "new norm", I imagine there has to be a breaking point. Not everyone can be rich....right?
Ok, but what happens when companies start issuing stock en masse to capitalize on this? I am honestly amazed it hasn't happened already.
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