When will the world open up

Debating whether I should start FT earlier in February rather than July (I'm graduating early). My plan was to travel and start in July but will the world even be opened up in the spring. 

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I think next summer will be similar to the one that just passed, however I believe next year will have less restrictions and COVID numbers will have improved. However, I still think major events like parades, carnivals, parties, cruises, etc. will either be cancelled or very limited. I don’t see the world completely opening up without restrictions until late 2022/early 2023. 

 

Might be sooner than expected:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-airlines-idUSKBN2…
I know people at JFK who are working on this, there is no date or expectation, but once LHR-JFK is open both the EU and all of the USA should be accessible again.

My personal estimate: early 2021 with testing, maybe mid/late 2021 without.

 
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Wouldn't count on it anytime soon. I don't even think that a vaccine is going to make a difference in the minds of people who will be permanently scarred from this and unable to continue a normal life. This is now the "new normal" due to the inability of the general population to place this into context and realize that it will at some point be another disease that is apart of the human race, much like the other pandemics in the past 60 or so years that have each killed more than 1mm people globally. 

 

The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.

 – Josef Stalin

Pretty true how humans view death. I find it rather interesting. If your family member died in a car accident suddenly, you'd be really sad. If a thousand people you don't know/ barley know suddenly died in a car accident, I doubt most people would feel anything at all.

“The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.” - Nassim Taleb
 

That being said: if you are able to travel (country to country restrictions vary) you may be personally fine. South of France last year was more or less business as usual and suspect Spain and a few other places will be as well this year. Can't hide in an apartment on Zoom cowering after reading the 500th NYT article that says you may be able to contract COVID from blinking.  

 

Spring is going to probably still not be back to normal by any means. If we can get wide scale distribution of testing out this thing could get beaten back sooner, but complications in the distribution of mrna vaccines sound like they’re going to push back wide scale vaccinations by months.

 

I agree but I think people have been too optimistic about a vaccine. First of all, we don’t even have one yet. Politicians have all been talking is if one has been approved for late this year. Secondly, large groups of people have stated their distrust of government and vaccines. How are you going to get them on board? Thirdly, to mass produce the vaccine and get it to every part of the world will be an enormous challenge. We don’t even know the fiscal ramifications. Is the vaccine going to be free or low cost? If not, only people with health insurance may be eligible to take it. In order for a vaccine to be truly effective, 70%+ of the world’s population must take it. I just don’t see that happening. I think best case scenario is we see 35%-40% of the global population taking the vaccine. 

 

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