Circular references in LBO models

Hi all,

I have a problem with lbo models, I don't understand how they involve circular references ?

Here is a very very basic model, where you enter a debt level and your expected FCF/EBITA (lets assume they're the same) to calculate your return (i broke the link, WSO wouldn't let me post it if not):

htt p://w ww.se ndspace.co m/file/cd1xo4

The more debt, the more interests I pay, the less excess cash I have, the less I amortize my debt. There are no circular references.

Do you know what I am missing that would introduce a circular reference in this model please ? (not that I love circular references, but it seems to be the base of any lbo model, and I can't see where they come from).

In advance, thank you for your help !

 
Best Response

you can create an lbo model without circular refs if you calc interest based on prior ending balance. they come into play when you calc interest on average balance outstanding, i.e. (prior ending balance + current period ending balance)/2. Circular BC your interest is dependent on ending balance, ending balance is dependent on cash flow available to amort debt, and that cash flow available to amort debt is dep on interest. look at any basic lbo model template and you'll see that.

 

Can I set up a function about interest rate? for example, since debt principal payment is determined by EBIT and interest expense, I can make x= interest expense, and y=principal payment=a(EBIT-x) . Also make D0 debt balance at year=0 and D1 debt balance at year1, r=interest rate. So x=(D0+D1)r/2=(D0+D0-y)r/2=(D0+a(EBIT-x))*r/2. This is a equation about x. So can we solve x aka interest payment this way? if so, why is it a circular reference?

 

Sometimes you have to go through and delete problem cells then undo the deletes and it will work. Can be very frustrating. Have spent hours trying to make the circular reference work properly. Try saving then deleting cells like interest expense and other items in the cash flow statement that are tied to cash then crtl+z until it is back to normal.

https://www.accountkiller.com/removal-requested
 
Nilugee-Jackson:

Thanks for your answers. I've looked at some models, that's actually the case (they take the average balance instead of just the prev. ending balance). I didn't know we were supposed to do it like that.

The logic follows how you would calc DSO and DPO. You take the average of the beg and end balance because interest is being accrued over time. If you use one or the other, you are going to over or under represent actual interest.

 

This works well in lbo models, at least the ones I do...

Replace the offending cells with constants, e.g. the number 5 and hit F9 to refresh until you get numbers replacing the #div's.

Then, go in and replace them with the actual formulas, one-by-one, hitting F9 after each one. Everything should update correctly.

Sometimes with an lbo model I'll just replace the interest expense (which is the circular part obviously) with a constant, get everything looking right and then paste in the formulas and refresh to fix.

 
dosk17:
This works well in lbo models, at least the ones I do...

Replace the offending cells with constants, e.g. the number 5 and hit F9 to refresh until you get numbers replacing the #div's.

Then, go in and replace them with the actual formulas, one-by-one, hitting F9 after each one. Everything should update correctly.

Sometimes with an lbo model I'll just replace the interest expense (which is the circular part obviously) with a constant, get everything looking right and then paste in the formulas and refresh to fix.

Another easy way to fix circ errors is to include a choose function (or something similar) that toggles between using the average and beginning balance of debt to calculate interest expense. Average balance is of course the correct method, but switching to beginning balance can help to strip out a circ.

 

I remember in training they taught you to build a circ toggle to replace interest expense cells with hard values (zero) to fix your div'ed out model. I don't know anyone that actually builds the toggle, though. It's funny, it's obviously more efficient but I always just cut the interest expense, paste it to the side, replace with zeros, F9, then paste it back in. And I know the former pre-MBAs here did it too because it's hilarious - I see 0's to the side of the interest expense lines (outside the print area) in older models every time without fail.

 

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