Distressed debt / debt-to-control investment environment

Interested to hear from any one that works in or provides advisory services to distressed debt or PE firms that look to buy debt and convert to equity for control 

  1. How does the covid market situation compare to GFC/post GFC? 
  2. Are the opportunities narrower (e.g. mainly in travel and tourism, retail real estate)?
  3. What are the types of returns that you are underwriting (ballpark)?
3 Comments
 
Most Helpful
  1. The covid market situation broke down more broadly across more sectors and went deeper quicker  vs. the GFC. But then because of stimulus, cheap money etc. the market rebounded far quicker than anyone would have expected resulting in a smaller opportunity set for distressed to come in. Given that small window you saw that most funds had to deploy in the early months of 2020 to achieve outsized returns in the relatively "safer" companies, otherwise they had missed out
  2. The opportunity set was quite broad based, especially at the start of the year when covid first hit, because of the uncertainty at the time (agnostic of industries). Back in Feb/Mar, no one knew much about the virus, e.g. how far was it going to spread, how lethal was the virus, when was a vaccine going to come out, etc. Because of this EVERY sector was impacted and there was a window where everything was stressed/distressed. Though then as you got into the back end of the year, it was more the "obvious" sectors now which remain "stressed", but most investors are already looking through it given the optimism in the market post cheap money. Even in those obvious sectors you'll see the debt now trade fairly close to post covid, think cruises, airlines, etc.
  3. Returns will always depend given you outlined distressed debt / debt-to-control. If you're thinking more credit opportunities / special situations, these guys will typically target 15%+, while more mezz or direct lending will be closer to 6-15% (unlevered)

Hope this is helpful

 

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