Easy questions on arr and run rate
Hi guys. Easy questions below.
- what’s the difference between annual recurring revenue and run rate? Aren’t these basically the same?
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I don’t understand when I’m looking at a CIP when they say “projecting 2023 run rate revenue of $10m.” Why wouldn’t you just say 2023 revenue of $10m? Run rate is an annualized metric based on a stub, why would you project financials like that? Sorry I’m just very confused.
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because run rate is an annualized metric based on a stub, why do people refer to historicals on a run rate basis? For example it’s 2022 now but I still hear people say “we did 2021 run rate revenue of $5m.” Why not just say what your 2021 revs were… what are they referring to in these cases?
thanks team!!
1. ARR only accounts for revenue expected from current customers while RR includes ARR, revenue from new customers in the time frame, upselling, etc. ARR is most similar to Recognized Revenue. It is helpful to know the ARR vs RR when it comes time for the finance department to do their budgeting. For example, worst case scenario they assume their old customers will account for x% of revenue in the next year due to some assumed customer retention % input but RR is a more realistic approach of what they would expect (base case.) RR is commonly used for businesses that are growing because ARR doesn't account for new customers, upsell, etc. In the end, they are very similar and I have seen them used interchangeably.
2. That is confusing. . .I have seen this happen when companies are assuming a new contract with a larger customer gets put into place in the middle of the year, usually with a term of a few years. This has a strong impact on the business and increases the revenue the company will see for a substantial amount of time. It's basically a way to bump their value up, instead of being valued on their 2023E revenue they want to be valued on their 2023E RR revenue. Also, it is helpful from a budgeting perspective.
3. I assume they would prefer not to be valued on based on their LTM revenue (2021), instead they believe their 2021 RR revenue is a better metric to base the value of their business off of. Also, it is helpful for the CFO to know what they expect their RR to be from a budgeting perspective. Similarly, ARR could be used as the "low" case when projecting out a business while a "RR" is more indicative of the "base case".
Thanks boss man. For the historicals, how are they even defining 2021 run rate though? Like 2021 happened, it’s over. Are they taking the last month of 2021 revenue x 12 = 2021 run rate? Like I’m so confused on the definition
Yes, it could be that or the stub year that you mentioned before. Something like expected revenue from May 2021 - May 2022 or their December 2021 revenue * 12.
May 2021 - may 2022 is much more confusing to me. Why would they include 2022 at all?
I'd frame #1 a bit differently:
Thanks! What are your thoughts on my questions 2 and 3?
Agree with responses above. On #3, you would look at historicals for an appropriate apples-to-apples comparison // assess growth rates.
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