See WSJ article:
Not really news, but lays the situation out well.
Curious how this industry is reacting to this. Friend of mine at a MF said they follow the Fed's dot plots when thinking about swaps.
Obvs free money regime over, but I assume potential responses are more nuanced than that. Funds which specialize in achieving roll-up/strategy outperformance survive? Or those funds large enough to twist their lenders arms to existable rates?
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Based on the most helpful WSO content, the industry's reaction to higher interest rates can vary. Some funds might indeed follow the Fed's dot plots when considering swaps, as your friend at a MF mentioned.
However, the impact of higher interest rates is multifaceted. For instance, cash-rich lenders like Wells Fargo and JP Morgan could see more profits as the cost of capital goes up. On the other hand, fintech lenders like Carvana and Upstart might struggle as rising costs of servicing their own debt could force them to charge higher interest rates.
In terms of funds, those that specialize in achieving roll-up/strategy outperformance could potentially survive the shift. They might be able to adapt their strategies to the new environment. Similarly, larger funds might have the leverage to negotiate with their lenders for more favorable rates.
However, it's also important to note that the market can be unpredictable. As one user pointed out, it feels like the market could go in either direction within the next two years. There's a lot of money in the market, and it's unclear what could trigger a significant shift.
In conclusion, while the end of the free money regime is certain, the industry's response is likely to be nuanced and varied. It will depend on a variety of factors, including the specific strategies and resources of different funds.
Sources: Housing Slumps, Jobless Claims as Expected | The Daily Peel | 8/19/22, Interest rates...what now?, 3rd Year HF Analyst Q&A, https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/real-estate/are-deals-falling-out-due-to-higher-rates?customgpt=1
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