Is there anything wrong with this alternative model

I am thinking of using an alternative valuation model to pitch a small bolt-on deal for our corporate parent. To give you more context:

  • The parent is active in the M&A space and always looking for small to medium-sized bolt-on deals
  • They are valued at 8x EBITDA by their PE investors thus any deal that allows them to buy EBITDA at a cheaper multiple is considered a doable deal. Ex: Acquisition of $50m EBITDA company at 5x EBITDA = $250m. Upon closing parent EBITDA goes up by $50m, valuation increase 8x 50m = 400m.

I want to incorporate FCFs into the valuation since it can be used towards CapEx & paying off debt used for purchase. Below is an example snippet; Did not incorporate interest yet to keep things simple.

https://ibb.co/gZHSjKy

As you can see, EBITDA is valued at 8x and Cash is valued at 1x. (8x EBITDA + 1x Cash) - Amount Spent (which is the initial price + CapEx over 5 periods) = Valuation Increase. ROI is calculated by the valuation increase per $ of amount spent. Did not incorporate the time value of money or interest yet to keep things simple before I scrap it altogether.

I am aware that this is a very unorthodox valuation but is there anything clearly wrong?

 

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