PE market outlook seems very different from public market
PE guy in Asia here but we also read up on US markets occasionally. And I have some personal trading so I follow US and Asia public markets quite closely
It feels very different to me on the view of private market vs public outlook.
At work I have been hearing things like struggling to refi, asking for continuation fund alternatives, IPO market is not there, debt wall, etc.
But then in public markets, SPX is all time high, Hang Seng Index or Straits Times Index are both doing well in Asia. IPO is hot af in Hong Kong right now and I assume it is similar in the US seeing it is still top 3 in terms of IPO volume.
Bond yields are down and credit spread is narrow. I am even struggling to convince myself buying BBB bonds just to justify a slightly higher yield (that us taxable) with much higher risk than treasuries (if what PE's view on business struggling with cashflow / exit is real).
What is missing there? The PE side feels bleak to me with people talking investment exit is tough, private credit is booming because traditional financing options are drying out. Hard to find a good asset at the right valuation, etc.
Yet we have stock market going back ATH, narrowing credit spread. Perhaps mid caps are struggling but then even Russell 2000 is on an upward trend with 10-15% below ATH only.
Are we heading to a bubble for public market and is there a permanent divergence between public and private?
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