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If you were truly doing classic growth equity deals (control or large minority positions in sustainable, proven businesses), you shouldn't really be underwater right now. Maybe your time horizon got extended a bit, but your fund definitely isn't going to blow up.

If you were late-stage venture and paying 100x ARR for bullshit companies, your hair is probably on fire and you are drowning in red ink. Tiger was at one point so far in the hole that they needed assets to appreciate 3-4x from current marks before they even cleared the fund's hurdle rate. 

In both cases, deployment paces and hiring have materially slowed since 2021. I think a lot of the venture tourists that you saw, inclusive of crossover funds, will probably retreat a bit from this space after getting bitten like this (and thank goodness for that)

 

They're in a weird spot because they don't really do the classic growth equity deals any more (even though they basically invented the category)... just doing a mix of seed/early deals and giant buyouts. I expect the former are disastrously bad right now. Aware of multiple instances where they invested >$50M in <$1M ARR businesses. The buyouts are probably doing okay, so it's really dependent on what the ratio is within the fund. 

 

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