Which PE firms are just plain screwed?
My views:
-Apollo: I don't think I even need to talk more about them. The less said the better.
-Permira: Wow. Some really bad investments. Really, really bad. Possibly the worst large portfolio on the street? I think so. Not sure how they're going to raise more money.
-Providence Equity Partners: The last few years were a really bad time to invest in media.
-KKR: Less so than the other firms, but they have stinkers. I think their European fund is hurting more. They bought huge companies, so the downside is more limited.
Lots and lots of MM PE firms. I assure you guys, the MM firms did more stupid things than the Megafunds. Most of the MM firms are going to be extinct.
Obviously would be worried about Cerberus as well.
Blackstone might have some issues with their real estate centered investments (Hilton, Eq Off, etc.) and their media investments but have strong offsetting positions
KKR i think is in relatively good shape, poor investments in Capmark and Masonite offset by Avago, TXU, Dollar General, etc.
for both KKR and Blackstone, I agree that the comment about buying industry leading large companies should help shelter some of the downside, but this is a bad recession and its going to be hard for everyone.
TPG has lost a lot of money on WAMU, but overall think tehy are going to be ok.
Lots of the middle market retail focused guys have to be having issues, ie.
H&F is going to be in relatively good shape as well, several services and marketing based investments that are going through a rough spell, but H&F is a great firm and consistently delivers good results.
Anyone elsE?
What about top and upper middle market PE firms - anyone have any insight / speculation how they will fare out? Firms like New Mountain, Berkshire, and Golden Gate?
Interesting to go back and look at this, Apollo is on the top of the pack now and we all know how TXU ended up for KKR.
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