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I hesitate to double down on my livelihood's exposure to real estate
Yeah, same here. I'm so vested in real estate as a profession and investor at the street level that my securities (which are small) are not in that sector at all. I'm thinking ETF's tied to Health Care Tech, Ok, maybe some Health Care operations assets like Nursing Homes, etc. Then after that a hodge podge of high growth.
STWD looks really good right now, but I am wondering if they will be able to fulfill their 10%+ dividend. I also read a note that someone thought it got hit unfairly hard because people associated STWD with the hotels (now owned by Marriott), lol...
Parks and Hotels is interesting, right now its trading at like ~6, and its expected to pay a dividend of 0.45/share which is an absurd div yield currently, however it will only make one more payment and then no more for probably a year as it recovers, the insider trading is ridiculous with the CEO buying a million dollars worth of it only a week ago or so.
LOL Tom Baltimore? Same guy just stopped taking a salary and donated a shit ton of money to help people who are being affected.
what do you think of the REIT long term
You would think that fundamentally in the long run, these Reits will recover to NAV. Lower leveraged Reits that own assets such as high quality multifamily are probably the buy right now especially if trading at a discount.
Any recommendations on this? I was looking at BRG, but seems to have higher leverage.
I've put a little extra money into the market during these dips (REIT-wise, I'm a big fan of BXP and HPP), but I won't be doing anything outside of my regular every two week investment from here on out. Time in the market versus timing the market and all that.
Was a big fan of tech heavy HPP, couldn’t be a more ass backwards market right now tho so they’ve struggled mightily. Luckily you can still buy in these decently cheap compared to rest of the equity markets
Anyone buying any of these reits right now or waiting ?
Im buying NRZ and STWD.
What do you like about NRZ?
$ACC American Campus Communities. seems really safe and sold of with the rest of the market (over 50% now). 93% occupancy rate and already preleased for 2020 Academic Year
up 50% since this post boys
Realty Income Trust (O)
Loaded up on STWD at $10.95 thinking it was a no brainer. Now trading $8.80. And this is why I didn't become a trader.
Hold for 2-3 years and you’ll realize it was a no-brainer. We’re not at the bottom yet, but it’s okay to be a little early. Just buy in small increments rather than loading up all at one time
I don't know shit about trading but why does every one keep saying we aren't at the bottom yet. I understand that the economic ramifications are yet to come but aren't you concerned that a lot of people are thinking the same thing?
Let's say the company just made it clear that they no liquidity issues and would easily make it through in to next year, do you still think it will plummet below last monday or wednesday with bankruptcy off the table?
i'm long NLY from 4.75
19% yield (if they don't cut the dividend)
Ouch... down to $1. Looks like they might go Bankrupt
nope...trading $5.40 right now
NLY = Annaly Capital Mgmt
I've loaded up on a couple REITs that were hit pretty bad lately. I'll share a handful of companies that I've had my eye on primarily in the multifamily, office, hotel, and development space that I'm happy to share and discuss.
Including: - Hudson Pacific (HPP) - Camden Property Trust (CPT) - Kennedy Wilson (KW) - Equity Residential (EQR) - MGM Resorts (MGM) - Park Hotels (PK) - Douglas Emmett (DEI) - Howard Hughes (HHC) - Essex (ESS) - Kilroy (KRC) - Vornado (VNO) - SL Green (SLG) - Boston Properties (BXP) - Schwab US REIT ETF (SCHH)
MGP>MGM
Less potential upside in MGP in my eyes.. especially at todays price compared to a week ago...
VICI>GLPI>MGP
Also, MGP is just the propco. MGM will almost definitely do worse due to the shutdowns
Did you buy today? Seems hard to believe things are going to keep going up.
Not today, beginning of the week and a couple days ago. wanted to see what was going to happen with the stimulus bill. Fun little wave to ride out the last few days. Especially Hudson Pacific and Kennedy Wilson....
anybody know why mortgage reits rebounded so strongly today? ex. ladder is up 100%, and gpmt is up 200%
My guess is that investors saw value after they fell 80%+ month over month. Even if some of these mortgage REITS fail, all of them won't. There is a real possibility of making 200-400% returns in 12-18 months just by buying the dip.
You do understand how the math behind that is working right? If a stock was at $100 and was hit hard because the credit market is riskier to default, and goes to $20's, that's a 80% loss. But if that number goes to $40 from $20, that's a 100% gain.... Buts its still 60% of where it was before when at $100...
So in this case: Ladder Capital was down to $2 - $3 a share, after trading around $17 - $18 for the last year on average. From $18 to $3 is a massive loss of what, 82%? Then, when that $3 goes to $6 - $7 like it is today, you now have a 95-100% increase from $3..... Simple math
I dont know 100% but Id assume this happened because the stimulus package eases concerns to many investors about a major short term credit crunch due to the knowledge that Banks (mortgage moratoriums for 90 days in Cal for 3/4 of the major banks) and governments will support, and will be further supported, with their short term problems. That concern is worse in the credit market because of the acceleration to potential default. I'm still trying to figure out if any are in prime position like a lot of the tradition REIT Equity guys, so I am also curious to learn more...
Any good recommendations on low leverage multifamily reits?
WPC looks very juicy.
I would stay clear of real estate for now, especially commercial real estate where cash flow is going to be a huge issue. Refinancing is also impossible in current market conditions.
why are mortgage reits getting hammered when interest rates are at record lows? corona stopping demand to do deals? owners can't pay rent? what about collateral?
Not entirely sure. I think you mentioned the right things though. Increasing unemployment means higher default rates and returns potentially getting slashed by MBS holders or MREITs that lend directly to a buyer.
margin calls. lots of good reads dissecting mreits have been coming out. margin calls, repo market, and no one knows what collections will look like, so it is leverage, on leverage, on leverage, wiht no rent for an unknown timeline
And they have to pay their investors/lenders, who have to pay their share/bond holders
I put some skin in the game on a two REITs today. The way I look at it is this: probably not the best time to go all in on anything given vol and ongoing uncertainty, I think theres some stability that will come from the numerous support and stumulus packages, but no matter what, everything is at a very reasonable discount still. If worst comes to worst, just average down your positions and wait for the next div.
My thought too. Which two you go for?
BPR & ROIC
I'm scaling in (cost avg.) on mREITs over the next few months for any REIT that is only exposed to agency backed mortgages. Legislation will be passed, and pretty sure the guys on the outside of agency will be strait 'f-d', but inside companies will get a boost. Fundamentals are out the window. Ironically, Investors need to think long and hard about underlying assets for first time in several years.
yeah mreits are not in a good position. Without gov intervention they are done for. Most have high exposure to non agency loans. So unless the gov bails insurance co's and private debt funds funded by equity from private equity funds, there is no way they can stick to their obligations. All their debt is short term, and no one is lending short term, and all their positions are long term (mortgages) and no ones paying their mortgage .....
"for any REIT that is only exposed to agency backed mortgages" any chance you could explain what this means for someone who knows nothing about credit/real estate?
Fannie/Freddie multifamily loans.
Good luck my dude. I like your agency strategy and the fact you’re taking on credit right now. Hopefully does well for ya
howd these bets work for you? Wish I went into mREITs but never pulled the trigger :(
Anyone else loading up on Americold (COLD)? I like their product a lot, I think as more people are going to grocery shop online in the future as it becomes more convenient, the cold storage/refrigerated market is going to be more important.
Any recommendations on REIT ETFs?
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