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For first year most likely no. Also clarify if your bonus is a percentage of your annual salary or your income that year (i.e. if you start mid year, your bonus would be 20% of 6 months of your annual salary).
percentage of your annual salary.
I haven't heard of someone receiving more than their target bonus although I wouldn't rule out that it has happened before (never say never). I would classify it as extremely rare.
It is possible at my firm to make more than your target bonus, significantly more. It really depends on how good you are and how much the company made that year.
The opposite is also true - you can make significantly less if you suck or it is a bad year (e.g. during the recession).
what if a recruiter told you that your offer was $x base with guaranteed Y (% of base) bonus.... but the offer letter from the company said your target bonus is Y% at the discretion of the company blah blah blah?
I would have to assume that they can give you less if its a bad year or you suck.
1) Doesn't matter what the recruiter said
2) If the bonus is discretionary, it is not guaranteed
The best advice I can give you is the advice that a VP gave me early in my career:
Live on your base, save your bonus.
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