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Ah, the jungle of CLOs can be quite the tangle, but let's swing through what we've got here. Based on the most helpful WSO content, there's no direct mention of specific CLO shops at risk or a consensus on the matter. However, there are some insights we can glean:
Market Conditions: The context hints at the competitive nature of credit shops and their opportunistic behavior in market downturns. If the loan market faces challenges, as mentioned in the context of the Coronavirus impact, some CLO issuers could be at risk, especially if they're heavily invested in distressed assets or if there's a significant market selloff.
Performance and Strategy: The context also touches on the strategies of different credit funds, including how CLOs operate and the risks they take. CLOs that are not adept at managing these risks or that have a high concentration in volatile industries could potentially be at risk.
Industry Challenges: Specific industries, like consumer products, have been mentioned as distressed. CLOs with heavy exposure to struggling industries might face higher risks.
To get a better grip on which CLO shops might be at risk, one would typically look at their asset performance, industry exposure, and how they've navigated past market downturns. Since the context doesn't provide specific names or a consensus, it's a bit like trying to peel a banana with your feet – possible, but not without the right technique and a bit of a mess.
For a more detailed consensus, you might want to check out the latest threads on WSO or dive into some credit market analysis. Keep your eyes peeled for any distressed signals or bananas – both can be quite telling.
Sources: CLO Asset Manager, Most active credit shops in the market?, Most active credit shops in the market?, Coronavirus impact on credit funds, Private Credit -> Public Credit Exits?
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Yes agreed, a lot of these groups didn't issue, but took it from a list published in early 2023.
100% many will go bankrupt
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https://viceroyresearch.org/2023/11/16/arbor-realty-trust-slumlord-mill…
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