Hiring Market
To anyone with a decent amount of experience, particularly in a city like NYC - has the hiring market ever been this bad? Is this the status quo for what recruitment looks like, even at the junior level. I am trying to get an idea for whether or not this slump in activity is normal. Recruiters tell me they're working on nothing RE related in NYC (HSP, SG etc) but are they even telling the truth I don't even know. I have a 6 month gap on my CV now as an Analyst / Associate recently laid off and I'm starting to get really worried. I was considering an MBA but I don't even have a current supervisor to write me a recommendation letter.
In a similar boat. They should be understanding i think everyone knows how bad it is.
Keep networking, keep going. It's the only way. Definitely tough out here right now. Good luck on your search!
There are layoffs happening all over and we're in the worst economic environment in over a decade. Is this the worst it has ever been? Certainly not. But it's not a good time to be looking for a job and for those of us who have one we would be stupid to be trying to jump ship.
Not based in the Northeast, but I’ve been going through something similar. I was laid off 8 months ago and had to move back home.
I have actually had a decent amount of interviews and have completed a bunch of case studies, but have yet to receive an offer. Most of the interviews came through referrals. Have to work your professional and alumni network, otherwise your resume will get lost in the pile.
Lots of hiring going on still but idk if those are just ghost posts. There seems to be some groups growing within bbs and others exiting. I’d guess a lot of tome right now is being used to gauge interest and have people on tap for months down the line (jpm asset mgmt is notorious for interviewing with no roles open as an example)
Had a pretty good discussion on this with some buddies in all areas of RE, brokerage, acq, lending, etc.
If we look at CRE as a whole and the number of people that were employed in 2022 vs 2008 is more than 3x. There was record transaction volume, brokers selling deals needed to hire, lenders loaning money needed to hire, acquisition shops that were taking in record equity and due to rates needed to hire, etc.
Now we are at a point that transaction volume is down 70% in a market where we had 3x the number of CRE employees than in 2008. I truly think there is going to be a world of hurt. Maybe I am just being a pessimist and I hope I am very much wrong. I honestly expect 50% of the industry jobs will be gone. Many seniors in the industry will probably just retire. Its going to be bad and I think the sad part is that most people think we're all returning to normal and dont realize that this is the new norm. Even if we layoff half the jobs in the industry, it will still be 50% more than the 2008 period and I think thats where we are heading.
I think this is indeed overly pessimistic, though I agree there will have to be some pain to come after raising rates that quickly right at the end of one of the craziest real estate runs of all time. Real estate is multiples more institutional today than it was in 2008. Also, is your 3x number a guess or is that statistic out there somewhere?
Transaction volume can't stay this low forever. At some point the levers have to give so there's a market again. For that to happen we need more predictability in interest rates and until that happens transaction volume will likely stay deflated as folks can convince themselves that their sorry investments still have a chance at coming back "once they drop rates". My guess is we're pretty close to that happening and I've noticed a material difference in markets since summer ended with pricing expectations finally seeming to reset. The institutional players that did all the buying at some point have to sell as it doesn't pay to hold onto losing assets forever that have no chance of hitting a promote.
I could be off here as well, but I also imagine there is a lot less college talent focusing on real estate careers now than there were 7 - 10 years ago. It's just so much more lucrative to pursue a tech career these days for anyone that doesn't have dreams of starting their own RE company which is almost everyone that works in RE.
I think brokers will get hit the hardest. It seemed like any terrible broker the last few years was making multiples more than I was working for an REPE fund. There was surely fat that needed to be trimmed there.
3x data came from a JPM webinar i was on about a month back. Who knows how accurate that is.
Yes I should have clarified that if transaction volume remains low then my worst case scenario applies. Regardless transaction volume unlikely to go back to peak levels and I think the industry will definitely be smaller than where it was at its peak.
Agree with this take. Other take way too bearish. The reason there is 3x more jobs is because of how much more money on a global level has entered real estate and how institutionalized its become compared to 10/20 years ago. There is more pain to come and as people in literally the slowest industry ever we should know that the recovery will be slow as well. Our business is just fucking slow in general. But our time will come again. Saying we going back to prehistoric ages of real estate is like saying in 08 that the CMBS market is dead and is never coming back. Which we know wasn't the case. Young people are impatient. Learn to be patient, this is a career not semester at college, play the long game.
Disagree with this take. The industry has gotten larger as a factor of institutionalization that was less prevalent. It’s not going to contract by 50%. Imagine what that would mean for the rest of the economy…real estate literally relies on all other industries as they pay us rent and buy our product. If real estate contracts by 50%, it means Great Depression level issues. The world is in for a ‘world of hurt’ but not 50% contraction.
The above is my opinion. Could 100% be wrong. But don’t think it’ll be Great Depression level issues.
OP here. Honestly think this is the lowest point of my career, I was at a Top 20 PERE and was let go ironically because we struggled to raise the next vintage due to fund returns, out of my control. What’s worrying me is this 4-6 month gap in my CV and the fact that I’m now financially in the hole, and for someone that was earning a decent amount of money I feel pretty embarrassed. I used all my money to try and stay in the city I was working in to find a role, but it didn’t work out. I’m not sure where to go from here, it’s even more embarrassing that I couldn’t string a role given my experience and a great brand name behind me.
Not a chance
We have been hiring at the junior level on the west coast and almost everyone I've interviewed has told me they are concurrently interviewing at least two other shops if not more. We have had 2 candidates that we liked that ended up taking offers elsewhere before we got to final round with them. Can't speak to NYC, but it seems the market for junior level isn't completely dead on the west coast.
That's pretty interesting. On the west coast as well but it doesn't feel like that, especially with this tech recession that's been going on. What space are you in?
I am in REPE but the candidates I've been interviewing have also been interviewing at all sorts of shops. Developers, lenders, other REPE, etc. and I know they aren't lying because as I said, two of them that we wanted actually took other offers before we got to them.
I have been networking the past few weeks to get my foot in the door in CRE, largely in northern CA. Please PM if still hiring at junior level. Just graduated in August.
Know people who took a few more junior level roles over the last 2 months. Almost all of a solid MBA program are hired. Some others still looking, but there are real roles out there in NYC.
Some firms are taking their time, ie getting back to you a month later for next rounds or holding on hiring that role. I would suggest looking into Masters programs, why don't you have a senior that could write a rec? If not reach out to old coworkers/your old boss.
People are leaving to go off on their own and right now people are assessing hiring needs for next year. I wouldn't worry about 2008 vs 2022 jobs, not sure why that is a relevant stat or matters it's been 15 years and things change. People will also leave their firms after bonus season for whatever reason so there will opportunities there.
I’ve just restarted recruiter convos to feel out the market and I’ve been told that analyst and associate hiring is happening but VP and up is quiet.
I understand your concerns about the current job market in NYC. It's important to do your own research and reach out to multiple sources for a better understanding. Regarding your CV gap and the MBA route, focus on highlighting your skills and consider alternative options for recommendation letters. Stay proactive and keep networking. Best of luck!
In a similar position as well. I have been in CRE related roles for almost 2 years, ARGUS certified and consider myself to be solid in terms of financial modeling. Goal has been to network and lateral into an acquisitions role at a REPE firm. I have had 10 or so interviews and dozens of networking calls with people in the market -- all are saying how tough it is right now and nobody is hiring. Unbelievably stressed out.
What market are you in?
Philadelphia, but willing to work in NYC.
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