Modeling ECRIs for Self Storage
Hi!
I've started looking into self storage and learned about the two avenues that can be used to generate revenue, market rate increases, and ECRIs. However, I am not entirely clear on how to model ECRIs. Has anyone found a way to do it? Thanks for the help!
fritzl
Based on previous WSO threads, here are some insights on modeling Effective Cost Recovery Increases (ECRIs) for self-storage:
Understanding ECRIs:
Data Sources:
Modeling Approach:
Integration with Revenue Model:
Practical Tips:
For more detailed discussions and examples, you might want to explore the WSO forums on self-storage investing and modeling practices.
Sources: Self Storage Investing, Self Storage and MF Models, Institutional Self Storage, Can anyone review my modeling test answers? - Super Modelers Wanted
You will have your contract rents in place, and also market rent on your vacant units. In excel I would set that up as two rows in the pro forma linking back to your rent roll/market rent assumptions, and apply different growth rates to each. Chris Sonne’s modeling usually has like a 50 basis point premium for rent growth on existing tenants, but I don’t necessarily know if I agree with that. Over a long enough time period, in place and market rent should converge and I wouldn’t want to project different growth rates into perpetuity, but on a 3-5 year hold you may be able to juice income growth that way.
Currently I am modeling somewhat like that. Two rates, contract/in-place and market, growing contract with ECRIs (semiannual increases) and market at 3% growth yearly. What I am doing is anything that is vacant and leases takes the market rate and occupied SF take the contract rate, but at some point the newly leased SF should also semiannual increases, and the occupied SF with ECRIs should have some churn. Whatever that is lost should then take rent at market rate and eventually receive ECRIs. My issue is the reconciliation of all this.
At that point you could turn it into a probability weighted rent roll where every unit has rents grow at monthly existing unit growth % x monthly probability of stay + monthly new unit rent growth % x 1-monthly probability of stay
Unless you want to do an argus run with each unit as a suite, in which case you could do whatever, but that just sounds like a pain in the ass to generate false precision.
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