Is anybody just going to leave the industry?
When I graduated more than a decade ago, everything was normal. Sufficient transactions, value add made sense and everything just felt right. Then Covid screwed everything up and now it seems like even the most aggressive shops cant make anything work. The only developments I know are related to those that have held the land for awhile or are family office money with long horizon. Every deal is negative leverage couple that with rising operation costs and nothing makes sense. We look at off market stuff too but nothing truly makes sense there either. It was survive until 2023, survive until 2024, 2025, 2026, and now we pushing to 2028. Also hitting that point where your married with kids and all of that and you need to move on with your life. I love CRE more than anything, but I think the mental toll of not being able to get anything done is hitting me. Im tired of trying to compete with 1031 buyers, family offices, or just downright crazy sellers that have no intention of selling because they themselves have nothing to buy once they sell. Maybe its just me and my bad luck and all of you are crushing it, but honestly it's tiring and Im not getting any younger.
You're not alone, buddy. I've also been in the industry for about 10 years now and nothing is like what it was prior to covid. There was that short honeymoon phase after covid, but i agree with you, its been this holding pattern that's been quoting "next year", and the same thing gets said when we enter that next year. Things will for sure bounce back but nobody knows truly when. there's too many factors shifting around and they're all making it harder to do deals. At this point, i am looking to leave, just because i want more steady income that isn't so heavily tied to the market anymore. this stagnant cycle has been far too long. I am keeping one foot in the door but i don't think i'll be back in real estate with it as a primary source of income though
is BiggerPockets to blame for where we are now?
I will be sticking around long term but have definitely had a go of it too.
I'm not sure I'll ever "leave" the industry, but I'm increasingly looking at it as just part of what I do as opposed to everything I do. (Which is ironic, given the user name.) I agree with you that waking up to spin your wheels in the mud is soul crushing.
My advice is to find a way to make money, whether that's within or outside of the industry, and then use it and the knowledge you've acquired to buy or build real estate for yourself.
Just wish my entire background wasn't CRE finance (bachelors degree included) because I would have been out two years ago. This is legit all I practically know.
I’ve considered it but not sure what I would go do instead. While we may have some transferable skills it seems hard to market those to people outside of CRE who don’t really know what we do. What other roles have you consider pivoting too?
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