Predicting US mortgage interest rates

Hello everyone, 

I'm prepping for an interview at a CRE asset management firm and one question I've seen on glassdoor is:

How might you build a data model for predicting US mortgage interest rates?

What are some ideas on this? My first thought is to look at the spread between the 10 year treasury rate and mortgage interest rate but it would require some analysis to project the 10yr treasury rate. Let me know if you guys have any ideas. 

3 Comments
 

You’ll need a crystal ball.

The 10 year Treasury Forward Curve provides a forecast.  Chatham has it on their website.  Note that forward curves are wildly inaccurate as shown on the hairy curve which shows the inaccuracy of prior forward curve estimates. 
 

That said, I would rely on the forward curve as a predictor of inflation than anything the Federal Reserve has to say about it.  

 

Optio nobis ut rem non voluptatibus. Eius enim esse molestiae nisi harum ducimus. Eos accusantium et quo sint perferendis aut perferendis.

Non est expedita magni aliquam deserunt vitae optio. Aliquam minus autem voluptatem. Ullam ut quam facilis ea dolore placeat facere.

Officiis magni facilis esse nemo eveniet dolor debitis. Facilis voluptas vitae placeat voluptatem error quasi corrupti. Ex provident magnam aut voluptatibus. Corrupti corrupti facere enim explicabo autem et voluptatibus. Quidem quo hic soluta iste et cumque vel qui. Et ratione animi assumenda odit voluptate sit consequuntur.

Rerum nam dolor quia est ad esse. Sit necessitatibus et tempore illum ab quae temporibus sit.

I'm an AI bot trained on the most helpful WSO content across 17+ years.

Career Advancement Opportunities

September 2026 Investment Banking

  • Evercore 01 99.5%
  • Moelis & Company 01 98.9%
  • JPMorgan 01 98.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 01 97.9%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.3%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

September 2026 Investment Banking

  • Moelis & Company No 99.5%
  • Morgan Stanley 03 98.9%
  • Evercore 01 98.4%
  • Banco Santander 02 97.9%
  • BMO Capital Markets 12 97.3%

Professional Growth Opportunities

September 2026 Investment Banking

  • Evercore 01 99.5%
  • Moelis & Company 01 98.9%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 98.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 01 97.9%
  • JPMorgan No 97.3%

Total Avg Compensation

September 2026 Investment Banking

  • Vice President (16) $429
  • Associates (53) $259
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (8) $210
  • 2nd Year Analyst (26) $182
  • Intern/Summer Associate (15) $159
  • 1st Year Analyst (84) $151
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (76) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
3
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
4
kanon's picture
kanon
99.0
5
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
6
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
7
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
98.9
8
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
9
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.9
10
bolo up's picture
bolo up
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”